China/Hong Kong on the move

China may overtake Germany to become the world’s largest export country this year. China raised its 2009 growth estimate to 9.6% from 9.0% and said this year’s quarterly figures will increase.

Daily : Hong Kong/China on the move

-> Companies controlled by Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok, and Nathaniel Rothschild may buy shares in United Co. Rusal’s US$2 bn Hong Kong initial public offering

-> Hong Kong's retail sales value rose 11.7% from a year ago in November

-> New residential mortgage loans approved fell by 11.1% from the prior month to HK$25.8 billion in November

Malaysia - Work on GST has started, says Customs

The Customs Department is getting ready to implement the goods and services tax, which is expected to come into force in the middle of 2011. Customs director-general Datuk Seri Ibrahim Jaapar said the department has started preparing for the new tax regime. Ibrahim said the change would not be difficult as the department only had to transform the current system to GST. (NST)

GENTING SP (G13) - Well positioned to tap pent-up regional demand

This is the best research report about GENTING SP business & valuation from OSK Research Team. I would recommend you all take a look.

Download Link:-
http://rapidshare.com/files/325987027/Genting_Singapore_Initiation_In_Pole_Position_20091222_OSK.pdf.html

Thanks.

Asia Outlook 2010

There are four key differentiators which will drive
future growth in the region:
1) natural resources wealth,
2) emerging industries,
3) the low cost of manufacturing
4) the growing consumer class.

Expect V SHAPE RECOVERY in 2010. Enjoy your trade!

Wishing you all a happy holiday, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010!

New York: Runaway Inflation?

The producer price index for November jumped - Pls see figure 1.0(no picture - can't post due to technical problem). For investors and central bankers, shoud this be very worrying? In normal circumstances, yes. In current economic landscape, it would be a no. Why?


1) It should remove all fears of a deflationary environment unfolding in the US. Secondly, oil price has fallen for many weeks now, relieving the latent inflationary pressures. There are apparently various reasons for this welcomed development, example the fall in oil price. One, the supposedly weaker than expected oil demand from the US. Two, a strengthening US dollar. If these 2 reasons are valid, at this level, there's an apparent contradiction.

2)The USD is strengthening because investors are increasingly convinced that the US economic recovery is real, broadening,deepening and sustainable. If this view is valid, then, it can't be that oil demand is weak. If the oil demand is so weak, then the US economic recovery can't be strong. If the recovery is so weak, then, how can the USD be strengtheing? So, which view is correct?

Looking at the various economic and financial evidences, it would appear that the strengthening USD is the most accurate evidence to rely on. The US economic recovery is certainly gathering momentum, broadening and deepening. The latest monthly job report and the sustained and substansial fall in weekly initial claims are solid evidence of a strong recovery forming in background. Given this evidence, the weakness in oil price is a function of the USD strenghening and not weak oil demand in US economy. The surge in the producer price index is most likely a temporary affair. In addition, the strong USD would also mean that higher producer prices need not be translated into higher retail prices. Consequently the federal reserve still can keep the interest rates where they're for a while longer and has time to decide its next course of action vis-a-vis its interest rate policy.

GENTING SP

GENTING SP, ocbc maintain BUY with target price $1.31
-Early 1Q10 opening draws nearer. Genting Singapore (GS) is drawing nearer to its soft opening in Jan 2010 - we understand that this would involve the casino, four hotels (likely to be progressive) and Universal Studio Singapore (USS). We believe that the construction and fitting out is on track with many segments already done up - one such attraction would be its 1600-seat Festive Grand Theatre as Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) will host the children's charity concert ChildAid from 19-21 Dec 2009.
-USS ticket prices affordable. GS has also recently announced the pricing for USS, which will open with 20 of its 24 attractions ready to thrill visitors. A 1-day adult pass will cost S$66 during the weekdays and this goes up to S$72 during the weekends; a 1-day child (under 12) pass would cost S$48 and S$52, respectively. As compared to the other regional theme parks, we think that the basic pricing point should be pretty attractive enough to draw both local and foreigner visitors. For example, the Warner Bros Movie World in Australia and the Disney Land and Universal Studios in Japan would set an adult back S$90 per day; the USS 1-day adult ticket offers a discount of between 20.1% and 26.7%, depending on whether it is a weekday or weekend pass. Only the Disney Land in Hong Kong is cheaper but not by much - the USS 1-day pass is only 5.5% to 15.1% more expensive.
-Casino likely to see strong opening. As for its main casino business, if the recent robust casino revenues reported in Macau in 3Q09 and Oct 2009 are any indication, we expect the RWS casino to see a strong opening. Based on our industry checks, we believe that GS should have no problems attracting high rollers into its casino here, where it has a ready pool to tap on from the Genting group of companies. We also do not see a shortage of walk-in customers as RWS has already confirmed 30 events bookings.
-Maintain BUY with S$1.31 fair value. Although we are only expecting RWS to turn positive in 2011, a quicker than-expected turnaround is possible should visitation numbers turn out to be better-than-expected. As such, we maintain our BUY rating and S$1.31 fair value. Risks to our estimates include a deterioration of the global economic recovery as well as costoverruns for RWS' latter phases.

Schwab Chief: Don’t Bypass Financials

While a good amount of fear is still hovering over the financial sector, Jeff Mortimer, chief investment officer at Charles Schwab Investment Management, says that investors would be wise to include a significant amount of financial stocks in their portfolios in 2010.

“What I worry about [for] the individual investor is that they are underweight, perhaps, financials,” Mortimer tells CNBC. “A lot of taint has been put on that sector of the market, and I would just make sure that individuals … get to a market weight, a 10 or 15 percent weight of their portfolio [for financials] … even though it doesn’t appear that you want to own them.”

Despite what he calls a “violent” rebound in the stock market, Mortimer says he thinks stocks are fairly valued for an economy that is coming out of recession, and adds that he doesn’t think the rally has been “too far, too fast”.

BJTOTO ACQUISITION

1562
ACQUISITION

ACQUISITION OF 20% EQUITY INTEREST IN BERJAYA LOTTERY VIETNAM LIMITED [FORMERLY
KNOWN AS BERJAYA CORPORATION (LABUAN) LIMITED]
.
You are advised to read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment.
To read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment, please access
the Bursa website at http://www.bursamalaysia.com .


17/12/2009 06:07 PM


Ref Code: 20091217GA00215

4% GST to come into effect in middle of 2011

The 4% Goods and Services Tax (GST) is expected to be implemented by the middle of 2011. The GST Bill was tabled for first reading in Parliament by Finance Minister II Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah yesterday. He told the house that the second reading of the Bill was scheduled for March next year. Speaking to reporters at the Parliament lobby later, Husni said the GST would be a win-win situation for all, as the Government would receive an additional RM1bn in revenue for the first year while the business and export sectors would save RM4.1bn and RM1.4bn, respectively. “The Government is proposing GST at a rate lower than the (current) sales and services tax rates, and to allow certain exemptions from GST, especially on essential goods such as padi, vegetables, basic food (rice, sugar, flour, cooking oil), fish, meat and chicken, to ensure it will not burden the rakyat, especially the lower income group. The sales and services tax will be abolished and replaced with GST,” he said.
(Source:StarBiz)


Comments:
GST %:
4%(2011) -> 4.5%(2013) ----> 7%(2020)----> 15%(2040)

Australia 3Q GDP

Australia’s GDP expanded by 0.5%, year-on-year, in 3Q 2009, and grew by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter. Data released in the Australian National Accounts also shows that the terms of trade has risen by 1.0% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis.




Special Situation Investing - We will try to monitor the Australia Stock Exchange to find great value stock in future.

CNBC News : CITIBANK

CNBC News : CITIBANK

Insider Trading : LIONIND

Wednesday, 16 Dec 2009
7:22PM LIONIND TAN SRI CHENG YONG KIM (1,413,991 Shares Acquired)

7:22PM LIONIND TAN SRI CHENG YONG KIM (1,413,991 Shares Acquired)
7:22PM LIONIND TAN SRI CHENG HENG JEM (1,413,991 Shares Acquired)
7:20PM LIONIND Dealings in Securities by a Principal Officer Outside Closed Period

Our Comment:-
- Tan Sri Cheng Yong Kim is the boss of LION Group. He will know well about LIONIND in term of business valuation & earning. His action is most probably very good because i don't think he will use big amount of cash to speculate the his own company's stock. In fact, i think he start see the orders from customers. Business is picking up.
 
 
Special Situation Blog : Mid Term Buy on LIONIND.
Target Price               : RM2.00

Book : Buffettology Previously Unexplained Techniques Buffets

Version : Audio Book.
http://www.amazon.com/Buffettology-Previously-Unexplained-Techniques-Buffett/dp/068484821X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1260952945&sr=8-1


Pls contact us for more details.

looking for plays on the China investment pool, which we think will burst at some point... Demand in China is over-inflated, that is clear

Maybank to up stake in Viet bank

Vietnam's An Binh Bank, 15% owned by Malaysia's top lender Maybank, said it would sell another 5% for USD19.3m to the Malaysian bank this month. Partly private ABBank said in a statement, the sale involving the issue of more than 17.8 million new shares, would raise its registered capital by 22% to 3.48trn dong or (USD88m) between 20 and 30 Dec. With a stake of 20%, Maybank's holding in the Vietnamese bank will be the maximum for a foreign partner, and on par with HSBC Holdings plc's stake in Hanoi-based Techcombank. (BT)

Nestle replaces Parkson in FBM KLCI

 Nestle will replace Parkson Holdings in the FBM KLCI in the FTSE FBM KLCI following the semi-annual review approved by the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index Advisory Committee yesterday. In a joint statement yesterday, PTSE group and Bursa Malaysia said that the change would take effect from 21 Dec, and the next review would take place in June 2010.

(Source: Financial Daily)

Upheaval continues at TCW

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Asset management giant TCW Group is facing trouble on several fronts after firing its chief investment officer Jeffrey Gundlach last week.

Source:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-fund-manager-tcw-hit-with-redemptions-2009-12-09

Good News : Worries weigh on stocks as investors seek safety

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-open-broadly-lower-2009-12-08

Parkson Holdings (Parkson, 5657)

Parkson stock's price is capitalized at 5.39bln compare to stock Price RM5.20. By paying this amount, it's intersting that investors get in return.

1) Business offers negative working capital, but ROE is pretty impressive.
2) Parkson is much cheaper entry into Parkson Retail Group.
3) China's economy nowdays is similiar to Japan's economy of Sixties/Korea's of the Seventies.

Special Situation Blog rate Parkson Holdings -> Undervalued.

Our Ratings:
LONG TERM BUY

Parkson Holdings (Parkson, 5657)

Parkson Holdings plans to open 12 news outlets next year

Department store operator Parkson Holdings Bhd plans to open 12 outlets next year in the three Asian markets that it operates in, chairman and managing director Tan Sri William Cheng said. The target exceeds the number of stores opened this year and reflects optimism that business will improve in 2010 as the global economy recovers from a recession. At least half of the upcoming stores will be set up in China, while three may be in Malaysia and the rest in Vietnam, he said. Cheng expects the group to enter a new market, Cambodia, at the end of next year. The first store to open there will be in the capital, Phnom Penh. (BT)

Investment Style

"Contrarianism is a challenging but rewarding investment style" - Fidelity Anthony Bolton

Investing with Anthony Bolton - The Anatomy of a stock market winner

Anthony Bolton
Anthony Bolton left Cambridge University with a degree in engineering to start a career in the City. In 1979, aged 29, he was recruited by Fidelity, the international fund management group, as one of its first London-based investment managers, a move that proved to be the launch of a long and successful career as an investment manager. In surveys of professional investors, he is regularly voted the fund manager most respected by his peers. He will be retiring from full-time investment management at the end of 2007, while continuing to work part-time at Fidelity and spending more time on his charitable interests and his hobby, composing classical music. Anthony Bolton is married with three children and lives in Sussex.


I will post some investment strategies from Anthony Bolton in future. Please contact me if you need more information about this e-book. Thanks.

Link:-
http://www.amazon.com/Investing-Anthony-Bolton-Anatomy-Market/dp/1905641117/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1260077087&sr=8-2

Letter to the Editor – Buffett and Burlington Northern‏

To the Editor:




I read with some amusement professor Greenwald’s discussion of Berkshire Hathaway’s purchase of Burlington Northern (BNI), I could not disagree with his analysis more. One of my Native American friends says that one must be careful not to view things with “old eyes” and I fear that is what is happening to the professor’s view of Burlington Northern.



When I first began to look at railroads in the 1980’s, they were the very epitome of capital-intensive, labor-intensive companies consistently earning less than their cost of capital and that was during a period when they all had millions of acres low cost land holdings with attached mineral rights. At that time, the one true measure of a railroad’s operating success, its operating ratio, was rarely below 90%. Union work rules were killing them.



Since that time, a reduction in government regulation, mergers and disposals of surplus lines, changing crew consist rules, technology and improved motive power efficiency have combined to make railroads productive and highly profitable companies. They have created huge cash flows which have funded debt reduction and capital spending, making them much more profitable. Today, any railroad with a operating ratio in excess of 75% is considered to be poorly managed. They have not accomplished this by diversifying their business; their resource land grants are long gone they are almost pure rails now. They have not done it with increased leverage as they carry less debt and preferred than they did 10 years ago. They have done it by sticking to their knitting, serving the customer, driving down costs, capital discipline, technology investments and just hardnosed business practice.



An example of increased efficiency: changes in engine design have reduced the number of motive units needed per train, reducing costs in terms of both fuel and crew. Recently, GE introduced a new line of motive units with 16 cylinder higher horsepower diesel engines that, at sustained speeds, turn off four cylinders and maintain their speed on the remaining 12. The fuel savings are in the area of 30% for comparable runs.



The other issue unique to BNI is that the nature of its traffic has allowed it to replace many of its previously fixed costs with variable costs, giving it greater financial flexibility and the ability to change in an instant to accommodate business conditions. This in turn allows greater capital discipline and better returns.



While Buffett’s purchase of BNI does not seem to satisfy Berkshire’s traditional pattern of purchasing irreplaceable franchises, it does meet a more basic precept of being a toll-taker by offering a product an economy cannot do without. Most of the traffic on today’s railroads cannot be moved by any other modality. If we are going to continue to import goods from lower cost developing world countries, then the BNI route structure from the west coast ports to the mid west will be one of the few (two actually) to move that traffic.



Did he overpay? Maybe. Does it revalue all the rails? No. Will it work out for Buffett and his shareholders? Probably and better than most viewing it with “old eyes” can see at this point.



Dennis Gibb

President

Sweetwater Investments

Redmond, WA

Investment Fundamental - Part I

Why you lose money?
1. Payment of more than the instrinsic worth of the security.
2. Significant deterioration in a company's position.
3. Loss realized through actual sale.
4. Straying from fundamental investing disciplines.

Investing Rules
1)For Long Term investors, short-term price fluactuations are of little important.
2)TRY NOT TO LET YOUR EMOTIONS AFFECT YOUR JUDGMENT. FEAR AND GREED ARE PROBABLY THE WORST EMOTIONS TO HAVE INCONNECTION WITH PURCHASE AND SALE OF STOCKS.


By,
Eclectic Investor - Part I

Nov Non-manufacturing business activity index

Malaysia: Electricity tariif may be cut by 6 sen per kwh

The Energy, Green Technology and Water Minister Datuk Peter Chin said yesterday that the Government will trim electricity tariffs by 6 sen per kwh from 38 sen currently to 32 sen once the Bakun Hydro Electric Project begins operation. Nonetheless, he added that the Government expects the water consolidation plan in each state, including Selangor, will be done by March next year. (Sin Chew Jit Poh)

Bank of America to repay US$45bil bailout funds in next few days

NEW YORK: Bank of America Corp. said Wednesday it plans to repay its US$45 billion in government bailout funds in the next few days, a move that will help the troubled bank recruit a new CEO.



Continue...
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/12/3/business/20091203081626&sec=business

Swisscash Scam

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 30 (Bernama) — Malaysians are advised not to invest in an investment fund under the name of Swiss Cash or Swiss Mutual Fund (1948) being offered through the Internet and local agents.

The Swiss Embassy here said in a statement today that the investment fund had no relation whatsoever with the country.
“The company operates outside Switzerland and is not subject to the very stringent Swiss banking laws,” the embassy said.
“The reference to Switzerland with the attribute Swiss is solely made with the purpose to attract the unaware public to invest, thinking that they would be protected by Swiss laws,” it added.
The Swiss Embassy does not recommend the investment fund and advised the public to be very cautious before investing in the fund.


"If the return is really so profitable with guaranteed capital, i will be next Warren Buffet/Bill Gates after 10 years. I go to borrow USD1B from Maybank. After 5-10 years, i can replace Warren Buffet/Bill Gates"...

First Year , USD1B return
Second Year, USD2B return
Third YEar, USD4B return
Fourth Year, USD8B return
Fifth Year, USD16B return
Sixth Year, USD32B return .........................................KAKA

Insider Trading : POS Msia - Aberdeen Asset management Plc

6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (20,100 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (82,800 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (52,200 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (14,000 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (14,000 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (52,200 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (20,100 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (82,800 Shares Acquired)


- Hmm...Aberdeen still buying POS Msia these few days... So Tricky!

GENTING Bhd - 3Q results

Sales for 9 months ending 30/09/2009 edge down 1.78% to RM6.57 bln. Pre-tax profit gained 5.37% to RM1.94 bln. Net Profit increased 15.77% to RM798.9 mln. Net Earning per share were 21.62 sen. No dividend declared.

Eclectic Approach: Rating
HOLD

GENM - 3Q results

Sales for 9 months ending 30/09/2009 inched up 4.46% to RM3.72 bln. Pretax profit dipped 5.56% to RM1.30 bln. Net profit slid 5.56% to RM965.4 mln. Net earnings per share were 16.89 sen. No dividend declared.

Eclectric Approach  : Rating
- Sell above RM3.00

Insider Trade - TopGlove.KL

18 Nov – 24 Nov 2009 – The Overlook Partners Fund LP  sold 1,352,000 TopGlove shares.

 

VITROX.KL - Risk -> Manipulate the stock price

Somebody is manipulating the ViTrox's stock price, small volume transaction, but pull the price up rapidly. Please be careful.

POS - Credit Suisse & Aberdeen buy "Bad" business?

6:47PM POS Credit Suisse Group AG (14,000 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Credit Suisse Group AG (52,200 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (25,600 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (25,600 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (212,300 Shares Transacted)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (71,800 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (92,300 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (71,800 Shares Acquired)

Question:
Why Aberdeen Asset Management Asia & Credit Suisse as  international fund manager pick POS Malaysia Berhad? POS is making losses since 2007. I think the management from POS Malaysia Berhad, don't know how to manage business, good business become bad business, losses. Don't you think their management very very lousy?
 
Please let's me know if you find some good answer why they buy POS. I check the valuation, not attractive at all for one business, with more than 3 years EPS negative. Sleeping Manager working inside, How to generate profit?
 
 

Lion Industries Corporation - Back On Track

Lion Industries’ 1QFY10 annualised profit came in spot on with our estimates. While the recovery in the coming quarter will be bumpy and its profit will contract on the sharp plunge in China’s steel prices, we are hopeful of the company staying on track to achieve normalized profit in FY10. With that, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged 12-month target price of RM2.11, derived from a blended valuation of 6x FY10 EPS and 0.43x FY10 NTA/share.

Economics

US: Sales of existing US homes climbed 10% in October, as Americans rushed to take advantage of tax credit and lower mortgage rates. Purchases rose more than forecast to a 6.1 million annual rate from a 5.54 million pace in September
US: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -1.08 in October, down slightly from -1.01 in September. A decline in the contribution of production and income indicators offset small improvements in the other three broad categories of indicators that make up the index.
EU: Europe’s services and manufacturing industries expanded at the fastest pace in two years.The composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries in the 16-nation euro area rose to 53.7 from 53 in October

Thought of the Week

The current bull market run is now about 8 ½ months long, and has seen the S&P 500 Index rally by 61% through the third week in November. While past performance is by no means indicative of future results, this week’s chart illustrates just how “young” this rally may in fact be by historical standards. The average bull market during the post-WWII era saw a hefty 176% gain over an average of 68 months, perhaps an interesting point of comparison for investors who may be underweight in equities and fearful of the sustainability of the current market rally.

Maxis Insider Trade

7:35PM MAXIS Ananda Krishnan Tatparanandam ("TAK") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)

7:35PM MAXIS Dato' Haji Badri Bin Haji Masri ("Dato' Badri") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:35PM MAXIS Excorp Holdings N.V. ("Excorp") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:35PM MAXIS STC Asia Telecom Holding Ltd ("STCAT") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:35PM MAXIS STC Malaysia Holding Ltd ("STCM") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS PanOcean Management Limited ("PanOcean") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Pacific States Investment Limited ("PSIL") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Mohamad Shahrin Bin Merican ("MSM") (2,250,011,000 Shares Transacted)
7:34PM MAXIS Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd ("UTSB") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Usaha Tegas Equity Sdn Bhd ("UTE") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Binariang GSM Sdn Bhd ("BGSM") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Saudi Telecom Company ("STC") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Maxis Communications Berhad (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Tun Haji Mohammed Hanif Bin Omar ("THO") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Harapan Nusantara Sdn Bhd ("HNSB") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)

 
"Why all insiders keep selling the Maxis Stock? Are they trader?"
 
 
 

US Dollar Forecasters

“The most accurate dollar forecasters predict the world’s reserve currency will continue sliding even when the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates, which policymakers say is an 'extended period' away.”

"Historically, the dollar usually doesn’t start rising on a sustained basis until 12 months after the Fed starts to lift rates."

(Source: The Edge Malaysia)

PPB records 3Q09 net profit of RM595m

The group recorded 3Q09 net profit of RM595m, up 188% yoy. The higher profit was largely due to increased contribution of RM943m from its associate, Wilmar, and improved operating results from its sugar operations.

Special Situation on US Economy - Nov 2010

Morgan Stanley
"US Economic growth in 2010 and 2011 would be unusually weak as it faces numerous powerful headwinds and weak consumer spending"

Special Situation Blog
"There're powerful tailwinds too" - Special Situation
1)Aggresive Monetary Policy
2)US Consumer Spending is a function of disposable income and not just asset price. Equity price have already surged, prolonged battering of house price has ended, Disposable income is expected to grow at a normal rate soon, as the aftershocks emanating from the Lehman Panic subside.
3)Benefiting from a recovery in all kinds of investment spending.
4)Rising Exports to a fast recovering global economy (Especially Australia, Asia) will be another boost to US economic growth in the medium term.

The NYSE continues to sustain its upbeat mood,even when the US economic data does not look reassuring.

Agriculture Sector : Potash - Fetilizer

MELBOURNE (Reuters) -Fertilizer is hot and BHP Billiton (BHP.AX)(BLT.L), the world's biggest miner, wants a heap of the action.




The company is cashed up and looking for new avenues of growth. Potash, used mainly in fertilizer to grow fruits, vegetables, soy and corn, offers just the right opportunity.
BHP Chief Executive Marius Kloppers is so excited about expanding into potash, he talks about it in the same breath as he talks about the company's most profitable business, iron ore.
His bullishness on potash has prompted takeover speculation in the sector, with investors betting BHP might bid for one of the two big North American producers, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT.TO) or Mosaic Co (MOS.N), in a drive for instant scale.

CIMB Thai rises further

BANGKOK: CIMB Thai Bank Pcl surged by a record yesterday on speculation its Malaysian parent will delist its shares, prompting the Thai exchange to urge investors to “be careful” in trading the stock.

The shares jumped by the 30% daily limit to close at 3.90 baht (40 sen), the best performer in the benchmark SET Index, which dropped 1%. The stock has more than doubled in three days and closed at its highest level since Sept 26, 2003.

(Source : Bloomberg)

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) may rise to 6% by 2012

Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) may rise to 6% by 2012, driven by Government reforms and as the global economy continues to recover, a World Bank economist said. The Government expects the GDP to expand 3% in 2010, against a forecast of 4.1% by the World Bank. It also sees the economy shrinking 3% this year, less than an earlier forecast of a contraction of 4% to 5%. World Bank senior economist Philip Schellekens said the 6% growth was achievable as reforms have encouraged more private sector articipation and greater productivity. (StarBiz)

DIALOG : BUY TP 1.5

The company’s 1QFY10 results were within expectations, mainly attributed to the consistent performance across all its divisions except the specialist products and services division, which experienced a q-o-q drop in performance. Going forward, we believe Dialog would be kept busy with the feasibility study for the Pengerang independent deepwater CTF conducted jointly with Vopak. It has also proposed a 2- for-5 bonus issue. We like Dialog as a defensive O&G stock that pays an attractive dividend yield of about 4%. Maintain Buy.

Maintain Buy on Dialog. Our target price of RM1.52 is based on a FY10 sum-of-parts valuation. Dialog is a steady defensive O&G stock that provides investors an attractive dividend yield of about 4%. It held net cash of RM143m as at 30 Sept, 2009.

Kinsteel ------------- BUY

3Q09 Results Below Expectations

Kinsteel’s 3Q09 results were below expectations, largely on the back of lowerthan- expected volume sales. Nevertheless, what is positive is that with higher steel prices and lower production cost, Perwaja (PERH MK, MYR1.36, Not Ranked) and the group as a whole, returned to the black after three consecutive quarters of losses.

Billet prices rose an average of 5%-8% QoQ in 3Q09. Nevertheless, group revenue declined 28% QoQ on the back of lower sales volume, likely due to the slow pickup in domestic infrastructure projects.

Operationally, however, the group turned around to profit on the back of lower production costs, with an increase in the utilization of cheaper DRI as opposed to scrap metal, as its primary raw material.

Perwaja reported a net profit of MYR13.1 mln in 3Q09 vs. a loss of MYR84.9 mln in 2Q09. Cumulatively, however, the group continues to be in the red, with a total loss of MYR128.3 mln for 9M09.

Taking into account a more moderate recovery in selling prices and sales, we reduce our 2009 net profit estimate to MYR10.3 mln (from MYR24.4 mln) and our 2010 net profit estimate to MYR112.3 mln (vs. MYR128 mln).

Recommendation & risk

We maintain our Buy recommendation on Kinsteel with an unchanged 12-month target price of MYR1.10.

We continue to utilize a blend of PER and P/B multiples to value Kinsteel. Our target multiples are unchanged at 11x PER and 1x P/B, but are rolled forward and applied to our estimated 2011 EPS (2010 previously).

Our calculations are fully diluted after taking into account Kinsteel’s outstanding warrants (exercise price at MYR0.20), which will expire on Nov. 11, 2011. The target PER and P/B multiples are benchmarked to peer and historical averages. We continue to expect a better outlook for the industry, as we believe support for higher demand and selling prices will come from more infrastructure projects being rolled out. We also expect Kinsteel’s 2010 earnings to get a lift from plans to modernize and expand its facilities by mid-2010.

Risks to our recommendation and target price include slower-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected raw material costs and volatility in international steel prices.

Parkson Holdings ------- HOLD

Modest 1Q Growth ---- Results tak cantik

We retain our 3-STARS (Hold) recommendation on Parkson Holdings (PHB) after minor adjustments to our earnings projections following the release of 1QFY10 (Jun) results. PHB is trading at a 33% discount to the market value of its stake in its main subsidiary, Parkson Retail Group (PRG) (03368, HKD13.36, Not Ranked), which is close to the historical average of 27%. We believe PHB will continue to trade at a discount to PRG, given PHB’s smaller market capitalization and lower share liquidity relative to PRG.

1QFY10 (Jun) results were at the lower end of our expectations due to marginally weaker-than-expected contribution from the China operation, which is held via 51.6%-owned PRG. PHB's 1QFY10 net profit rose 8% YoY on the back of revenue growth of 3%. We estimate that PRG accounted for about 80% of PHB’s earnings. 􀂃 The China, Malaysia and Vietnam operations saw same-store sales (SSS) growth of 7.5%, 4% and 22% respectively in 1QFY10. Malaysia’s 1QFY10 SSS growth is within the full-year target of 3%-4%, while Vietnam’s is above the full-year target of 15%-20%. Meanwhile, PRG’s SSS growth of 7.5% in 3Q09 and 7.1% in 9M09 are
at the lower end of its 2009 target of a "high single digit" growth. Nonetheless, we expect growth to gather pace next year, as consumer demand improves in line with stronger economic growth.

PHB’s concessionaire rate fell slightly to 20.8% in 1QFY10 from 21.1% in 1QFY09, while the China operation’s concessionaire rate (via PRG) fell to 19.8% from 20.3%, due to promotions to drive sales. We expect fewer promotional activities as consumer sentiment picks up.

We have fine-tuned our forecast for PRG, resulting in a 3%-4% cut in our net profit forecast for PHB. We project a 3-year recurring net profit CAGR of 23% driven by PRG, which is targeting a floor space increase of 15% p. a.

Investment rationale

PHB offers exposure to retail markets in three countries, namely China, Vietnam and Malaysia. In our view, PHB is well-positioned to benefit from rising purchasing power in China and Vietnam over the longer term. Management has extensive experience in the retail business and PHB is an early entrant into the fast-growing retail markets in those countries. In China, its first-mover advantage has enabled it to build a strong brand name and a nationwide network.
Meanwhile, with concessionaire sales accounting for 86% of merchandise sales, inventory risk is minimized.

Our 12-month target price of MYR5.50 is unchanged. Our target price continues to be based on a 25% holding company discount to the sum-of-parts (SOP) value, plus projected net DPS.

The 25% discount that we apply to our SOP value is close to the historical 27% discount that PHB trades to PRG in terms of the market value of its stake in the latter. In our view, the market value discount reflects PHB’s smaller market capitalization and lower share liquidity relative to PRG.

Our valuation of PRG is based on a combination of discounted cash flow and relative valuation. PRG’s relative valuation is derived from a target 2010 PER of 24x (unchanged). Meanwhile, our valuation of the Malaysia and Vietnam operations is based on a target FY11 PER of 8x.

Its Not Too Late To Profit From Agilent (A), See What We Found

Agilent (NYSE: A) hit a new 52-Week high of $29.67 so far today. Currently the stock is up $0.20 (0.68%) to $29.57 on 1,887,493 shares traded. Today's high is up $17.55 from a 52-Week Low of $12.02. Agilent stock has been showing support around $27.59 and resistance in the $30.39 range. Technical indicators for the stock are bullish and S&P gives A a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking. The stock has been trading higher since posting better than expected earnings last week for its fiscal fourth quarter. If you are looking for a hedged play on A the stock seems like it could be a candidate for a January out-of-the-money bull-put credit spread below the 25 range

Thought of the Week

Many commentators are talking with doomsday language of an imminent Dollar plunge. While a further decline in the Dollar is certainly possible, a "plunge" doesn't seem in the cards. First, the U.S. trade deficit has narrowed sharply over the last year. Second, the U.S. economy grew faster in 3Q than the Euro-zone or the U.K. Third, as can be seen in this week's chart, investors have more faith in U.S. debt than they do in our major trading partners. So while an orderly decline in the Dollar is possible, a collapse doesn't seem too likely.

Retail Sales UP, Inventories Down - Sign of Recovery!

Retail sales in the US rebounded more than forecast as demand for autos climbed, and a regional gauge of manufacturing showed expansion for a fourth month, easing concern the recovery will cool after government incentives end. Purchases increased 1.4% in October after a 2.3% drop in September that was larger than the previously estimated. Stocks added to a global rally after the reports signaled rising demand at retailers from discount chain to luxury store may foreshadow a better holiday shopping season. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said “headwinds” of reduced credit and a weak labor market will probably restrain the recovery. (Bloomberg)



Inventories at US businesses fell in September to the lowest level in almost four years, signaling orders will rise in coming months as spending picks up. The 0.4% decrease in stockpiles was smaller than anticipated and brought the value of goods on hand down to USD1.3trn, the fewest since November 2005. Sales decreased 0.3%, reflecting a slump in demand for autos that was reversed last month. Companies depleted inventories at a record rate in the first half of the year, laying the groundwork for economic growth in the second half as consumers and businesses started spending again. Lean stockpiles at manufacturers such as carmakers and growing exports will spur a factory rebound that will propel the economic expansion into next year. (Bloomberg)

CITIBANK - BULL within 1 month

Eclectic Approach :-
CITIBANK will turn into SUPER BULL because of market sentiment. John Paulson's action will bring attention from speculator.

Period :-
1 month

Lion Diversified cuts stake in Parkson

Lion Diversified cuts stake in Parkson. Between April and June 2009, Lion Diversified Holdings’ (LDH)Excel Step Investment disposed of 18.5m Parkson Holdings (PHB) shares in the open market for RM86.5m. Subsequently, LDH had from 26 June to 19 Oct further disposed of a total of 36,740,100 PHB shares, representing 3.62% of the issued and paid-up capital of Parkson, for a total cash consideration of RM185.8m. Hence, LDH and Excel Step Investment have disposed of a total of 5.44%, reducing LDH’s stake in PHB to 5.6%, including the 57.2m shares that are convertible from Redeemable Convertible Secured Loan Stocks of RM228.8m. The rationale of the PHB share disposals by LDH is to pare down its borrowings and for working capital requirements, and has nothing to do with Parkson. In fact, management has been guiding that LDH would realize the shares at the appropriate time. According management, LDH still holds < 1% of the issued and paid up capital of Parkson and has no plans to place out its 57.2m convertible shares currently.

Citibank Group - Worst Is Over?

A lot research & articles are written daily about C. If you want to see the details of C's various business, the information in available in abundance. C is expected to post its second consecutive annual loss in 2009, it should return to profitability in 2010.


Contrarian Strategy :-
Overweight US financial sector, underweight Malaysia/HK financial sector. Add Holding in C to 15% of total porfolio. Top pick. "Remember, EPI centre is in US, not Msia/HK/Indonesia."  I bet on CITI's brand name, attractive valuation and global economic recovery (China/Australia/Indonesia).

Expect Next Quarter, most companies will improve its business revenue.

Period : Long Term 5 years

Asia Big Brother : China

Demand for workers in China picked up sharply in the third quarter, adding to recent signs that the nation's economic recovery is improving conditions for consumers.

Maxis to replace MAS on KLCI

Bursa made the announcement that Maxis will be inserted into the main index on 20/11. The addition will also be made to the Top 100 and EMAS index as well.

Economics

China: Industrial production and retail sales accelerated by 16.1% YOY and 16.2% YOY respectively in Oct, while consumer prices continued to fall, signaling strengthening recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.

Jim Rogers: Time to Buy Agricultural Commodities

If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there,” said Jim Rogers, the famed investor and self-made billionaire in a recent interview. “But I don’t know of any other place.”


What’s he talking about? Today, we take a look and invest right alongside his idea. And it should start to pay off with the arrival of the first swallows of spring in 2010. It’s also timely now — in this weak-kneed economy — because it has traditionally held up well even in when the economy is on the ropes. Even the Great Depression couldn’t put this thing down.

WILMAR INTERNATIONAL

WILMAR INTERNATIONAL
Wilmar International, the world''s largest listed palm oil firm, reported a better-than-expected 35 percent rise in quarterly profit, helped by a one-timegain, and said it was otimistic about prospects for the rest of the year.



Risk : - Higher Expection on earning growth from Wilmar International in Singapore Stock Exchange. Too optismistic. Very risky now.

GENTING SP : Casino Entry Fee $100 for Singaporean

According to some research from Brokerage House, S$100 entry fee for local Singaporeans.

Is S$100 really a big amount for Singaporean?
- Everyday, a lot "customer"s are Q-ing outside Singapore Pools(www.singaporepools.com.sg) to buy TOTO/Lucky Draw/4D. Business is extremely good.
- If want to go to legal Casino, they have to travel to Malaysia KL Genting, it takes 4 hours journey. Bus ticket cost them S$70 (two-way). Taxi, Accommodation, Food, How much?


GENTING MALAYSIA
Let's make some calculation for 2-days in Msia-Genting :-
1) Food - S$20
2) Accomodation - S$40
3) Bus ticket (two way) - S$70.00
4) Total Travel Period - 8 hours - For gambler, 8 hours will allow them to play many rounds.
Total Expense - S$130.00

GENTING SENTOSA
How about GENTING SENTOSA TRIP for Singaporean?
1) Entry fee - S$100.
2) SMRT-MRT- S$5

Total Expense - S$105.00

Conclusion:-
They can save up to S$25 and save travel times. Time is $$$ for Serious Gambler. They can earn back 105 within 1minute. :)


Another Points :-
I guess A lot of malaysians from Johor Bharu(Malaysia) will travel to visit GENTING SENTOSA and have some "BET". Why not spend long journey from JB -> KL -> GENTING HIGHLAND. Don't waste $$ & Time lar !!!

Buffet think High Inflation coming??!!

Warren Buffet bought the railway. Why?
- This Railway is used to distribute commodities in US.
- Emerging Countries like China, is hungry for Commodities.
- Hedge against High inflation.


Jim Roger - Strong recommendation on Commodities --------------->>> China's government link fund is shopping on commodties related company from 2008-2009.


What happen Later? Commodities Price UP SOON... 


My Strategy : BULLISH ON COMMODITIES SECTOR NOW

MAXIS.KL : New Component in FBM30KLCI

Target price RM5.80
Final Price RM4.75
Institutional Price RM5.00
 
According to media reports, Maxis has fixed the final retail price of its IPO at RM4.75, being the lower of the initial IPO price of RM5.20 and 95% of the institutional price of RM5.00, following the closing of the institutional offering yesterday.

At the lower end. The final price is at the low end of the indicative range of RM4.80-RM5.50 and a reflection of the valuation appetite among institutions for the stock. Based on the final price, Maxis’ go-to-the market equity valuation of RM35.6bn will price its shares at 14x-15x FY09/FY10 earnings and 9x CY10 EV/EBITDA. Our fair value on the stock ranges from RM5.30-RM5.80 which implies CY10 EPS of 14.8x-16.2x, within the PER range of regional cmparables and Digi’s 16.1x FY10 EPS. To be included as a component stock come 20 November. Maxis will be automatically included as a component of the KLCI with effect from 20 November. It would be the largest telco constituent (estimated weightage of 6.1% based on our calculation), raising the overall telecoms sector weightage on the index to 14.5% from 8.8% previously. Showing the numbers. Maxis would have to demonstrate its ability to
(i) maintain a generous dividend payout (subject to the minimum 75% payout guidance) and
(ii) supplanting the slowing growth in the domestic mobile market via stronger data revenues.

We had highlighted in our IPO note that Maxis should have no issue meeting its dividend obligations given the superior FCF yields projected of 8-10% for FY10-FY11, comfortably over and above the projected net dividend yields of 4.8-6.1% for FY10/11 based on management’s guidance. There is scope for management to return more cash on the back of proactive capital management, including the gearing up of its balance sheet (net gearing of 0.6x post listing).

Initiating coverage with a BUY. We are initiating coverage on Maxis with a BUY recommendation with a fair value of RM5.80 based on DCF (WACC: 9%, TG: 1.5%). Key share price re-rating catalysts are (i) the stronger than expected earnings going forward (ii) and (ii) higher than expected dividend payouts.

Jim Roger Interview

Salary Scales

Salary scales, as you may guess, are in the stratosphere. According to Instituional Investor in mid-1995, "the bulk of experienced analysts make between $300,000 and 500,000 a year; standouts receive more than $600,000. Then there is the million dollar a year club , which includes several dozen of the Street's outstanding oracles. Income-wise, they are in a class with entertainers and professional atheletes.

What happen after this Big Bull?

Strategy :
Comfortable holding cash for tomorrow’s opportunity

GENTING Singapore Plc : Swinging open its doors in Jan 2010 : TP 1.27

Maintain Trading Buy. Quoting Genting Group’s chairman Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, Bloomberg reported that Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS) is on track to open in early Jan 2010. While not entirely a surprise, the early opening will be a positive, in our view, as: 1) it falls within the earlier part of its 1Q2010 guidance; and
2) RWS can fully capture holiday-makers during next year’s Chinese New Year festivities. Also, RWS’s debut is very likely to be ahead of its rival’s, Marina Bay Sands (MBS). We continue to anticipate growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date. We retain our FY09-11 earnings estimates and end-CY10 sum-of-the-parts target price of S$1.27. Reiterate TRADING BUY with share-price catalysts likely to come from:
1) this concrete opening date;
2) more aggressive marketing efforts;
3) the award of its casino licence; and
4) a potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period if MBS opens later.

Reason:
Positive development. The early Jan 2010 opening date is not entirely a surprise. GS has always guided for a RWS debut in 1Q2010. The timing excites us more as: 1) it falls within the earlier part of its 1Q2010 guidance; and 2) RWS would be able to capture the Chinese New Year crowd, as the Lunar New Year falls on 14 Feb next year. More importantly, an early Jan 2010 debut is very likely to be ahead of MBS’s expected Jan or Feb 2010 opening date. We note that RWS’s first event would be a ChildAid Concert, to take place on Dec 19-21 at its Festive Grand Theatre. Although RWS clarified earlier on that the theatre would be the only property accessible then, we do not discount the possibility of a soft opening of the resort to selected guests in conjunction with the concert.

Expecting more news flow. Besides this opening date, we expect RWS to step up its marketing efforts in the coming weeks as it seeks to build up excitement ahead of its opening. Another key event to watch for is the award of its casino licence, expected before year-end.

Still positive on RWS’s prospects. We remain optimistic on RWS’s prospects, especially with a more concrete opening date. Furthermore, RWS’s competitor appears still quite a distance form the finishing line. A potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period would be positive for RWS and could boost its numbers beyond our earlier estimates, especially with growing anticipation for the debut of Singapore’s two integrated resorts.

Valuation & Recommendation
Still a TRADING BUY. No change to our FY09-11 earnings estimates. Growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date and newsflow on RWS’s intensified marketing and rollout efforts, together with the award of a casino licence sometime in 4Q09 are expected to provide stock catalysts. GS remains a TRADING BUY.

Parkson.KL - Less speculative index stock but High Growth

TP: RM6.50

RNAV - 24x PE for its China operation, 12x PE for Malaysia operation and 10x PE for both Vietnam and excluded stores.



Why I Like Parkson?

1) Business Growth in China and Vietnam -> Next Asia Big Brother!

2) Strong Profit Margin.

3) Strong Net Earning - Currently, based on my financial statement analysis techique, strong net earning + low maintainance cost + low debt -> Super Profitable Business

4) EPS growing consistently.

5) Strengthening RMB against RM. -> RMB's actual rate is MYR/RMB=1. Please read more about The Ascent of Money about RMB. You will find the trick !

6) Currently, Parkson is very popular in China. According to some China Friends, "this is big retailing department store in every big city"

7) Cheng Family is big shareholder. Cheng will work very hard to make the business success. "Non-Family owned Business is not so good in Asia because CEO will not work hard if he just a High-Income Employee". High Flyer CEO can TALK COCK more than WORK.

Example :- A director with MBA (XXXX Company) - Learn How to Play tennis during office hours, Read Non-job related News, Send non-sense Email, Fuck Too Much Mid-nite then work @home.---->>>>>> WASTING SHAREHOLDER's MONEY!

Bruce Berkowitz interview

How to be Multi-Millionaire?

If your income is $3,000 per month and starting capital is $100k, then what happen to you after 20 years with 20% compound return from your good investment strategy?
-Answer -> FIRE YOUR STUPID BOSS! Your total net worth is $7m after 20 years if you achieve 20% compound return every year! Job's increment is not enough for you to have $7,000,000 !!! Yahoo!Financial Freedom!

Don't follow news/comments from Expert

Try to be different from the perceived majority view. The current rally on the NYSE and elsewhere is one good example. So many were saying on March 2009 that the market and economic outlook is poor. By May, rally, driven only liquidity ( in fact, Dr Doom from NYU is still saying this). A few months later, they have cahnged their tune and are saying that the market rally is "too much, too soon, too fast." Yet, the rally is still intact. And now Warren Buffet is making his biggest bet by acquiring Burlington Northern.



Picture: SUSU
"If you follow pretty girl's command, then you always make mistakes" - Stockaholic

Warren Buffet Speaks about Railway

Berkshire Hathaway says 3Q profit triples to $3.2B

OMAHA,Neb. - Paper gains on derivative contracts helped Beriskire Hathaway Inc tripple its third-quarter profit as its insurance business did well, but Warren Buffet's company said Friday that many of its other operating businesses struggled.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g6pwCOHwYGslfdXCxKSDOPjw7hQQD9BQCS000

Unemployment rate hits 10.2% in October - Payrolls fall by 190,000, 22nd straight decline

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% in October, topping the 10% mark for the first time in 26 years, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. It was the 22nd straight decline in payrolls. Large losses were seen in manufacturing, construction and retail. Health care and temporary-help agencies added jobs. Read the full government report.
The report was worse than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate to 10%, with 150,000 lost payroll jobs. See Economic Calendar.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 10.2% was the highest since April 1983.
Unemployment rose by 558,000 to 15.7 million, the government said. Of those, 5.6 million had been out of work longer than six months, representing a record 35.6% of the unemployed.
The employment-population ratio fell to 58.5% from 58.8%. The employment-participation rate fell to 65.1% from 65.2%.
An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.5%, the highest on record dating to 1995.
Total hours worked in the economy fell 0.2%. The average workweek was steady at a record-low 33 hours. Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents or 0.3%, to $18.72. Average hourly earnings are up 2.4% in the past year.
In September, payrolls fell by a revised 219,000, compared with the previous estimate of a 263,000 loss. The unemployment rate was 9.8% in September.
Payrolls in August and September were revised higher by a total of 91,000.
In its survey of 400,000 business establishments, the government found that private-sector employment fell by 190,000 to 130.8 million in October. Government employment was unchanged.
Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 129,000, including 62,000 in construction and 61,000 in manufacturing. The average workweek in manufacturing rose to 40 hours from 39.9, the highest in 11 months.
Service-producing jobs fell by 61,000, including 40,000 in retail.
The only major sectors adding jobs were health care and education (up 45,000) and professional and business services (up 18,000). Temp-help agencies - a key leading indicator - added 34,000 jobs, the first significant increase since the recession began 22 months ago.
Of 271 industries, 33.8% were hiring in October, down from 37.5% in September.
In its survey of 60,000 households, the government found that employment fell by 589,000. The jobless rate for men rose to 10.7%, and it rose to 8.1% for adult women. The jobless rate for blacks rose to 15.7%, compared with 9.5% for whites and 13.1% for Hispanics.
The jobless rate for those with a college degree fell to 4.7% from 4.9%. For those without a high school diploma, the jobless rate rose to 15.5% from 15%. For those with a high school degree, but no college, the rate rose to 11.2%.

"This is another sign of full recovery will happen soon" - Tun Dr Ir. Sultan Lee

Introduction to Fundamental Analysis

This is a very brief introduction to the very vast subject of fundamental analysis. To understand and make productive use of fundamental analysis, familiarity with accountancy and economics are essential. However, one need not be an accounting or economics expert for this purpose.

From a shorter - term perspective, one could argue that fundamental analysis does not apply to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE)/Singapore Stock Exchange/Hong Kong Stock Exchange/Jakarta Stock Exchange/Thai Stock Exchange/Vietnam Stock Exchange. From a longer - term perspective, however, it is very difficult to invest successfully even on the KLSE/SGX/HKex without incorporating fundamental analysis into one's methodology. While the general perception is that the KLSE is still an inefficient market where rumours, tips, poor corporate governance, etc. rule, the smart investor would realize that applying sound fundamental analysis in such a stock market can be rewarding. But just like any other investment methods, fundamental analysis has its strength and weakness.

 

 

A. Earnings Per Share (EPS)

The Formula for calculating net EPS is:

Net Attributable Profit divided by Number of Shares Outstanding

EPS is generally used as an indicator of the performance of a company over a long period of time. For example, while a company's earnings may be rising over a period of time, its EPS may not be. There are various ways in calculating a company's EPS, depending on what the objective of the investor or analyst is. Most use net attributable earnings, that is, earnings after tax and minority interests.

EPS can also be based on historical or prospective earnings. Projected EPS is important because it can significantly influence the company's share price. A company's EPS can also be calculated on a diluted or non-diluted basis. Where a company has warrants outstanding, it is common practice to calculate the EPS assuming that all the warrants are exercised. The number of shares outstanding may also be affected by rights and bonus issues. In such cases, the number of shares outstanding could be an average figure.

 

 

Durable Competitive Business is able to grow 20-25% consistently over 10 years. But, high growth company doesn’t mean it is a good share to own. What if the growth stop and company has huge debt/long term debt?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oct Non-manufacturing business activity index

China’s non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 62.1% in Oct. This is the second highest reading since the index was developed and is consistent with a robust domestic economy. Going forward, while the index for business activitiy expectations moderated to 64.2%, it remained at a high level, indicating continued stable economic expansion.

DBS THIRD-QUARTER EARNINGS AT SGD 563 MILLION, UP 40% YEAR-ON-YEAR

SINGAPORE, 6 November 2009 – DBS Group Holdings recorded net earnings of SGD 563 million for third quarter 2009, rising 40% from a year ago and 2% from the previous quarter as operating trends continued to be healthy. Net interest income reached a record while fee income was the highest in seven quarters. Cost discipline was maintained. Asset quality stabilised, resulting in lower allowance charges and increased allowance coverage of non-performing assets from the previous quarter.
Net interest income grew 3% from the previous quarter to a record SGD 1.14 billion. Interest margins were stable while loans rose slightly to SGD 128.3 billion due to housing loan growth. Deposits increased 1% to SGD 180.2 billion, with the mix shifting towards current and savings accounts.

More positive signs on the global economy‏

Macroeconomics

· Overnight US data was upbeat, led by strong job data. Jobless claims dropped more than forecasted by 20k to 512k WOW adding to sign the job market is improving as the economy begins to gain pace. Further, worker productivity surged as labor costs fell and unemployment claims were lower, driving hopes that it will boost corporate profits.
· BOE and ECB continued to keep key rates at a record low on concerns that economies remain too fragile to remove stimulus measures. However, BOE raised asset purchases by GBP25b to GBP200b, GBP25b less than predicted, as the UK economy continued to contract through Oct, signaling recovery may be put on hold.
· Economic indicators showed that UK manufacturing output and IPI rebounded more than expected in Sep as rising confidence combined with sterling weakness appears to be supporting the recovery. However, European retail sales declined more than expected in Sep as consumers cut spending amid rising unemployment, suggesting the weak consumer sentiments are unlikely to head the recovery.

· Meanwhile, economic optimism in Australia were boosted by a statement by RBA saying that the economy will expand at more than three times the pace forecast in Aug, and signaled it will continue to lead the world in raising interest rates. Overnight data showed that building industry rose 0.1 pts to 50.9 in Oct, supporting views of strengthening economy.

How to be Super Rich Investor?

GENTING News

Genting, a gaming and power group, said the bulk of the RM1.5bn raised from the sale of medium-term notes will be used for strategic investments globally. "We are looking at a few investment deals but can't disclose them now. Some of the proceeds will go towards the Genting Singapore rights offer," said group head of strategic investments and corporate affairs, Datuk Justin Leong Ming Loong. Genting's unit, Genting Singapore Ltd (GSL), plans to raise SG$1.63 bn (RM3.99bn) from a cash call. Leong was speaking at the launch of the medium-term notes (MTN) programme in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. Genting via its unit GB Services, a special purpose vehicle, priced its inaugural issue of RM1.5bn nominal amount of 10-year MTN under its RM1.6bn MTN programme. (BT)

Professional Investors : IMS Health

IMS Health is being stolen It was announced Thursday that IMS Health was to be stolen from its shareholders for $4 billion or about $22 share; a private equity firm will buy them out. IMS Health should have free cash flows this year over $340 million (the actual number should be higher than $400 million, but is benefited by a $60 million onetime tax benefit). So this company, which has virtually no competition, has barriers to entry impossible for a new entrant to overcome, and a cash printing machine will be sold for about 12 times free cash flows. Over the past year we've seen much lower quality companies being sold for much higher valuations than this. Most recently, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, which has a significant competitive advantage but has far inferior return on capital and free cash flow generation than IMS, is to be purchased by Mr. Buffett for about 20 times earnings and 30 or more times free cash flows. IMS Health’s management and board have a history of making dumb capital allocation decisions, but this one may go down in history as their dumbest. We own these shares and will probably hold on to them in the hope that shareholders will refuse this offer.




(Source- Vitality N Katsenelson)

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is a portfolio manager/director of research at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of "Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets" (Wiley 2007). For more information click here.

Global - Oil rises above USD80 after unexpected decline in US supplies -> Hyperinflation coming?

Crude oil closed above USD80 a barrel after a government report showed that US inventories unexpectedly dropped as imports declined to a two-month low. Stockpiles of crude fell 3.94m barrels to 335.9m last week. A 1.5m-barrel increase was forecast. Oil also advanced as equities gained and a weaker US dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Crude oil for December delivery rose 80 cents (1%) to settle at USD80.40 a barrel at 3:04 pm on the NYME. It was the highest close since 23 Oct. Prices are up 80% this year. (Bloomberg)

China’s biggest bank to get Malaysia license

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the country’s biggest lender, will get a licence to open in Malaysia when Chinese President Hu Jintao visits from Nov 10-11 and a raft of commercial deals will be signed. ICBC will get an operating licence and be allowed to open 4 branches. (Malaysian Reserve)

Genting staff to get 12pc pay increase

Genting Malaysia has given its employees a 12% salary increase under its 10th collective agreement signed between the company and Resorts World Employees Union. "Employees will receive overall salary adjustment ranging between RM60 and RM210, subject to positions and added responsibilities," said Genting Malaysia president and chief operating officer Datuk Lee Choong Yan. Some 6,500 staff will benefit from the increment. At the signing ceremony in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, Resorts World Employees Union was represented by its president Robert Vijendren and witnessed by Human Resources Minister Datuk S. Subramaniam. Employees will also enjoy additional income for split allowance, food and beverage counter crew allowance and cashier allowance. Genting also agreed to a RM1,000 increase under hospitalisation benefits, which was previously RM4,500 to RM5,500 annually. (BT)

Insider Trading : D&O

6:47PM
D&O --> LIM THIAN SOO (80,000 Shares Acquired)
6:47PM
D&O --> LIM THIAN SOO (80,000 Shares Acquired)
6:47PM
D&O --> Lim Yam Poh (80,000 Shares Acquired)
6:47PM
D&O --> Lim Thiam Cheok (80,000 Shares Acquired)

Insider Trade : Etitech

6:43PM
ETITECH --> Lee Kah Kheng (2,550,000 Shares Disposed)
6:43PM
ETITECH --> Yeoh Li Hua (2,550,000 Shares Disposed)
6:43PM
ETITECH --> Dennis Chuah (10,090,600 Shares Transacted)
6:43PM
ETITECH --> Lee Kah Kheng (2,550,000 Shares Disposed)
6:43PM
ETITECH --> Dennis Chuah (10,090,600 Shares Transacted)

The Contrarian : Is Recession Normal? No

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/1116/finance-recession-great-depression-dow-the-contrarian.html

MEMS.KL FINAL CALL -> SELL

WHY SELL?

The beauty of a company with long term competitive advantage is that it makes so much money, it doesn't have to mislead anyone to look good.

Final Call : SELL !!!

Remove it from watchlist forever !!!

What's Preferred Share?

Preferred Stock is a second class of equity. Preferred shareholders don't have voting rights, but they do have a right to a fixed or adjustable dividend that must be paid before the common stock owners receive dividend. Preferred shareholders also have priority over common shareholders in the event that the company falls into bankruptcy.

Preferred Stock is Functions like debt in that dividends have to be paid out, but unlike the interest paid on debt,which is deductible from pretax income, the dividends paid on preferred stock are not deductible which tends to make issuing preferred share very expensive money.

UK - House prices rise twice as much as forecast

UK house prices increased twice as much as economists forecast in October as record-low interest rates and a limited supply of homes buoyed the property market. Home values climbed 1.2% to an average of GBP165,528 (USD270,000) after rising 1.5% in September. The median forecasts were for a 0.6% increase. Prices are now down 17% from the peak in August 2007. (Bloomberg)

UNICO.KL : Will Come Back Soon !

IPO Strategy : MAXIS

Maxis is worth a punt. Advise you take up the offer. I am bidding at 5.20 and should the final settlement be less will get a rebate.


For example if the settlement is RM 5.00, we will get back 20 sen.

The institutional money who have committed to purchase should drive the price higher in the short term. These Insiders will push the price higher in the short term so they can off load their purchases at a higher price. We can take advantage of this and sell with them locking in a 10 to 15 % gain.

If this scenario doesn't pan out, we cut our losses.

One fundamental I like is that there has been a lot of negative news by local analists on Maxis in the last week. Bad news is the friend of the buyer as Warren Buffet would say. If there was lots of good news I would be wary.

GoldenAgri - Top Pick Plantation Stock in ASEAN

Golden Agri Resources’ Jakarta-listed subsidiary, PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology (PT SMART), reported a 9-month net profit of IDR536.6bn. In 3Q alone, PT SMART made IDR327.7bn compared to IDR208.9bn for 1H.


Trading buy: S$0.40-0.43
Target   Price : S$0.50 (min)


WHY?
Golden Agri is trading at forward PE of 14.5x and 13.0x, which is undemanding compared with its large cap Malaysian peers, which are trading at PEs in the high teens.  There is a trading opportunity with Golden Agri given that it provides a better exposure than Malaysia-listed palm oil companies due to its cheaper valuation.


GO GO GO!!!

Subprime-Lending Crisis -The problem with leverage and the tricks it can play on you -

Leverage is the use of debt to increase the earnings of the company. The company borrows 100million at 7% and puts that money to work, where it earns 12%. This means that it is earning 5% in excess of its capital costs. The result is that $5million is brought to the bottom line, which increases earnings and return on equity.


The problem with leverage is that it can make the company appear to have some kind of competitive advantage, when it in fact is just using large amounts of debt. Wall Street investment banks are notorious for the use of very large amounts of leverage to generate earnings. In their case, they borrow $100Billion at, let us say, 6%, and then loan it out for 7%,which means that they're earning 1% on the $100Billion,which equales to $1 billion. If that $1 billion shos up year after year, it create the apperance of some kind of durable competitve advantage,even if there isn't one.

The problem is that while it appears that the investment bank has consistency in its income stream, the actual source that is sending it the interest payments, may not able to maintain the payments. This happened in subprime lending crisis that cost the banks hundreds of billions of dollards. They borrowed bilions at, say , 6%, and loaned it out at 8%. to subprime home buyers, which made them a ton of money. But when the economy started to slip, the subprime homebuyers started to default on their mortgages, which meant they stopped making interest payments. These subprime borrowers did not have a durable source of income, which ultimately meant that the investment bank didn't either.


In short run, they appear to be the goost that lays the golden eggs, but at the end of the day, they're not.

LVS Part II

• Rob Goldstein, a Sands executive vice president in charge of operating its Las Vegas properties, said the company was gradually increasing its room rates and trying to avoid price cuts generally made to keep rooms filled.
• Rooms cost more than $170 on average during the quarter at the Venetian and Palazzo, though slightly more at the Palazzo. The rooms were just under 90 percent occupied for the quarte
• ... rates for leisure travel are also beginning to firm, particularly on the weekends. (obviously at some point supply finds demand - market discovery... hard to believe that still exists in America with what we see on a daily basis from our government and central bank)
• The company said it is continuing to cut costs but already has made 90 percent of the cuts it plans; in all, the cuts are to save the company $500 million per year.
And the elephant in the room...
• Sands also is working to lower its $11.76 billion in debt as of Sept. 30 by raising capital, selling noncore assets and cutting costs at its resorts.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Earnings "Ok" but CEO Talk Supports Stock; Hong Kong IPO Approved Part I

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is our one truly speculative fare in the portfolio - after sitting on the precipice of potential default banks swooped in [Apr 22, 2009: Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands Amend Credit Terms] and helped both LVS and MGM Mirage (MGM) live despite yawning debt loads. Las Vegas casinos was actually a group I was targeting 2 years ago as one of our canary in the coal mines when CNBC pundits and government officials were denying a recession was possible - while we were saying the house ATM driven, conspicuous consumption era was about to hit the wall. [Oct 3, 2007: A Top in Casino Names? Wynn and Las Vegas Sands] Unfortunately at that time we could not short individual equities so we could only watch from afar as many of these names fell 90%+ versus October 07.
But now it's a new day and almost every large corporation is deemed too big to fail. (Small business? No one cares about you) So we have to invest with the central planning commission government; amazingly banks who themselves were on the cliff of failing found it in their hearts to adjust loan terms to keep these big casinos alive. [Sep 3, 2009: Las Vegas Sands - Too Big to Fail?] At this point we only have about a 1% exposure in LVS since the day to day volatility is immense and the stock temporarily broke support. This is not really a name you can have very good risk controls over since the daily fluctuations will ruin almost any strategy. The chart is a bit misleading because after yesterday's 12% gains, the stock added quite a bit more in after hours once earnings came out mostly on the back of CEO Sheldon Adelson's comments about "bottoming" business activity. The fact that CEO phrases like this are still moving stocks 10% at a time is... well, says a lot about the market nowadays. The stock is in the mid $16s in the after hours session.
Effectively owning Las Vegas Sands is almost like a long dated call option; unlike MGM which is opening its huge project in America (City Center), LVS's future lies in Asia both with a Macau property and a new casino in Singapore. All things being equal (MGM actually has even more debt than LVS) I'd rather place my chips (pun intended) with the company whose future prospects lean to Asia. On that note we have word overnight that LVS has received approval to list its Macau unit in Hong Kong - should help them raise a ton of cash.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and China's Minsheng Banking Corp have won approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for more than $6 billion in combined initial public offerings, sources said on Friday, as the companies try to cash in on an IPO window that may be slowly shutting.
• Las Vegas Sands plans to raise $2 to $3 billion by listing the gaming company's Macau unit on the Hong Kong exchange, sources said. Sands will kick off pre-marketing next week and start its marketing roadshow on Nov. 9, with a trading debut set for the end of November, according to sources with direct knowledge of the deal.
• The gaming and casino company run by Sheldon Adelson has struggled with a heavy debt load, and is looking to seize on an opportunity to have a publicly traded division in Hong Kong at a time when the IPO window is still open.
• Casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. on Thursday reported a larger third-quarter loss as gambling markets continued to struggle, taxes increased and the company pressed ahead on developing a resort in Singapore.
• The Las Vegas-based company led by billionaire Sheldon Adelson benefited from more gamblers visiting Macau, the Chinese gambling enclave, but was hurt in its home market of Las Vegaswhere bettors have stayed away from tables and rooms have been less profitable.
• Las Vegas Sands posted a loss of $123 million, or 19 cents per share, for the three months ended Sept. 30. It said those results were hurt by increased income tax expenses, which cost the company $73.7 million. The results compared with a loss of $32.2 million, or 9 cents per share, a year earlier.
But as our readers know, to make the stock market cheap, we have to ignore many "expenses" since apparently they are imaginary. So a 19 cent loss turns into a 3 cent gain, presto magic
• The company said its adjusted income -- which does not include many one-time items including the taxes, interest expenses or stock dividends -- totaled $20.1 million, a profit of 3 cents per share. That beat analyst expectations for losses of one penny per share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.
• Its revenue rose 3 percent to $1.14 billion from $1.11 billion during the same quarter last year, but came in slightly shy of analysts' $1.17 billion estimate.

The Las Vegas exposure continues to suck wind...
• New casinos in Bethlehem, Pa., and Macau helped the company grow its overall gambling revenue more than $100 million to $908 million. But casino revenue at its Venetian and Palazzo resorts on the Las Vegas Strip fell to $99 million from $113.2 million a year earlier.
• Sands' revenue fell in food and beverage, hotel rooms and retail, while the company's overall expenses rose slightly.
• "It looks like they exceeded expectations in Macau, but they got destroyed in Las Vegas," said Susquehanna Financial analyst Robert LaFleur.

But never mind the numbers, the CEO provides happy talk and we can bid up the stock...

• Adelson told investors he was seeing strong signs that bad times might be turning around in Las Vegas because of a return of convention business and group bookings.
• "Just like night follows day and day follows night, there are peaks and valleys throughout the economic cycle and virtually everything in life," Adelson said. "There is no doubt whatsoever that the economy is returning and will return."

Who knew? Sheldon's a philosopher to boot....

Not as much "green shootery" coming from his peers...

• Several large Las Vegas-based casino companies have reported this week that they are struggling as consumers remain conservative in their spending, especially on leisure and gambling.

CIT Group (CIT) Falls As Bankruptcy Filing Seems Likely

CIT Group, Inc. (NYSE: CIT) is trading 17 percent lower in early action as a bankruptcy filing is seen likely for the small and mid-size business lender.


The company has been exploring a voluntary debt exchange and a prepackaged bankruptcy with bondholders. The voluntary debt exchange is unlikely to happen, leaving bankruptcy as the likely option.

This morning, CIT has reached an agreement to amend its $3 billion securities-based financing facility with Goldman Sachs International. Pursuant to the amendment, the commitment amount of the GSI Facility has been reduced to $2.125 billion, effectively eliminating the currently unused portion of the facility, and CFL has agreed to post additional collateral to secure amounts due to GSI under the GSI Facility

This Pullback is Buy Opportunity—Not Correction

This Pullback is Buy Opportunity—Not Correction: Strategists

Stocks fell last week and have continued to slide this week, prompting speculation that this may be the beginning of a correction. What does this mean for the overall markets going forward?

Adam Bold, founder and CEO of the Mutual Fund Store and Joe Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at Thinkorswim, shared their insights.

"This is really a healthy thing to have happen in the market," Bold told CNBC.

"It introduces some fear back into the markets, which is not a bad thing, and it gives people who have been waiting for an opportunity to get in that opportunity."

Bold said there's still US$4 trillion on the sidelines and there's still "a lot of opportunity" going forward.

Regional Morning Notes UOB Kayhian - Finance Sector (Maybank)

http://rapidshare.com/files/299390133/Regional_Morning_Notes_291009_1_.pdf.html

OSK : MAXIS IPO Price

MAXIS (TP RM5.30-5.80– SUBSCRIBE) Initial Public Offering: The Return of the Jedi


We value Maxis, Malaysia’s largest mobile operator, at an equity value of RM39.8bn-RM43.5bn, implying a fair value of RM5.30-RM5.80/share. The valuation translates into 14.8x-16.2x CY10 EPS, and is supported by our DCF valuation of RM5.80 (WACC: 9%,TG: 1.5%). Investors are advised to subscribe to the offer in view of Maxis’ strong fundamental execution, superior EBITDA margin and robust prospective dividends going forward. Institutional investors would have strategic exposure to an index-linked heavyweight with a sound liquidity profile. While deprived of the longer term growth story with the overseas assets hived off, Maxis is a core holding for exposure to Malaysia’s mobile telecoms.
(Source: OSK)

US Daylight saving time

US Daylight saving time is going to start on 1st Nov 2009, hence the US market will start the trading at 10.30pm(Local Time) by then.

Morgan Stanley Global Research Upgrades Malaysia

The influential Morgan Stanley Research has upgraded Malaysia and Egypt last week in the much followed Asia Strategy Report. Below are excerpts from the report:




Key changes in our country quant model this month are:



Upgrading: Malaysia and Egypt from equal-weight to overweight;

Downgrading: Peru and Chile from equal-weight to underweight.



Overweight countries are: China, Brazil, Taiwan, India, Israel, Poland, Malaysia and Egypt;

Underweight countries are:



Strong points for Malaysia in our model include a #1 currency ranking and #4 business cycle ranking. Relative P/Book has fallen to 1.0x due to recent under performance. Malaysia also gains in our model ranking this month, moving from #8 to #6. Strong points for Malaysia in our model include a #1 currency ranking (a combination of fundamental upside and a stock market consisting mainly of domestic demand, Malaysia ringgit earning stocks).



Malaysia ringgit is making steady progress against the US dollar.We also rank Malaysia’s business cycle score in the top quartile of EM countries in the model. Exports seem set to

trend up strongly from here, and Malaysia is one of the EM countries most geared to a recovery in global trade and commodity prices.



Due to recent under performance, the P/BR relative of MSCI Malaysia to the EM benchmark (now 1.0x) has fallen significantly. Malaysia is one of the least technically overbought markets in the asset class, ranking #5 on this metric. Moreover, the median GEM fund is running a significant underweight of 132 bps versus the benchmark, substantially higher than the average for the last five years.

Regional Morning Notes (UOB Kayhian)

http://rapidshare.com/files/298445056/Regional_Morning_Notes_271009_1_.pdf.html

Is the U.S. alone in this recovery?

Thought of the Week


Next week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish a preliminary forecast of third-quarter U.S. GDP, which is estimated to show an encouraging bounceback of 3 - 4% growth. However, it's important to realize that we're not alone in the recovery. This week's chart shows that China (as well as the Asia region as a whole) has already experienced its bounceback in growth, which is now returning to more normal levels. While the global rebound will not be perfectly in sync, global growth as a whole seems to be finally picking up, which should prove to be both a boost for U.S. expansion via increased exports as well as a significant tailwind for international stocks in coming years.

Local funds said to be paying RM4.90-RM5 for Maxis

Response to Maxis Bhd's share sale, Malaysia's largest initial public offering (IPO), is said to be tepid thus far, with asking prices said to be near the lower end of the RM4.80 to RM5.50 price range that book-runners are indicating. (Financial Daily)