Friday, November 13, 2009
Lion Diversified cuts stake in Parkson
Lion Diversified cuts stake in Parkson. Between April and June 2009, Lion Diversified Holdings’ (LDH)Excel Step Investment disposed of 18.5m Parkson Holdings (PHB) shares in the open market for RM86.5m. Subsequently, LDH had from 26 June to 19 Oct further disposed of a total of 36,740,100 PHB shares, representing 3.62% of the issued and paid-up capital of Parkson, for a total cash consideration of RM185.8m. Hence, LDH and Excel Step Investment have disposed of a total of 5.44%, reducing LDH’s stake in PHB to 5.6%, including the 57.2m shares that are convertible from Redeemable Convertible Secured Loan Stocks of RM228.8m. The rationale of the PHB share disposals by LDH is to pare down its borrowings and for working capital requirements, and has nothing to do with Parkson. In fact, management has been guiding that LDH would realize the shares at the appropriate time. According management, LDH still holds < 1% of the issued and paid up capital of Parkson and has no plans to place out its 57.2m convertible shares currently.
Citibank Group - Worst Is Over?
A lot research & articles are written daily about C. If you want to see the details of C's various business, the information in available in abundance. C is expected to post its second consecutive annual loss in 2009, it should return to profitability in 2010.
Contrarian Strategy :-
Overweight US financial sector, underweight Malaysia/HK financial sector. Add Holding in C to 15% of total porfolio. Top pick. "Remember, EPI centre is in US, not Msia/HK/Indonesia." I bet on CITI's brand name, attractive valuation and global economic recovery (China/Australia/Indonesia).
Expect Next Quarter, most companies will improve its business revenue.
Period : Long Term 5 years
Contrarian Strategy :-
Overweight US financial sector, underweight Malaysia/HK financial sector. Add Holding in C to 15% of total porfolio. Top pick. "Remember, EPI centre is in US, not Msia/HK/Indonesia." I bet on CITI's brand name, attractive valuation and global economic recovery (China/Australia/Indonesia).
Expect Next Quarter, most companies will improve its business revenue.
Period : Long Term 5 years
Asia Big Brother : China
Demand for workers in China picked up sharply in the third quarter, adding to recent signs that the nation's economic recovery is improving conditions for consumers.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Maxis to replace MAS on KLCI
Bursa made the announcement that Maxis will be inserted into the main index on 20/11. The addition will also be made to the Top 100 and EMAS index as well.
Economics
China: Industrial production and retail sales accelerated by 16.1% YOY and 16.2% YOY respectively in Oct, while consumer prices continued to fall, signaling strengthening recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.
Jim Rogers: Time to Buy Agricultural Commodities
If you can tell me something else where the fundamentals are so attractive…I’d be happy to put my money there,” said Jim Rogers, the famed investor and self-made billionaire in a recent interview. “But I don’t know of any other place.”
What’s he talking about? Today, we take a look and invest right alongside his idea. And it should start to pay off with the arrival of the first swallows of spring in 2010. It’s also timely now — in this weak-kneed economy — because it has traditionally held up well even in when the economy is on the ropes. Even the Great Depression couldn’t put this thing down.
What’s he talking about? Today, we take a look and invest right alongside his idea. And it should start to pay off with the arrival of the first swallows of spring in 2010. It’s also timely now — in this weak-kneed economy — because it has traditionally held up well even in when the economy is on the ropes. Even the Great Depression couldn’t put this thing down.
WILMAR INTERNATIONAL
WILMAR INTERNATIONAL
Wilmar International, the world''s largest listed palm oil firm, reported a better-than-expected 35 percent rise in quarterly profit, helped by a one-timegain, and said it was otimistic about prospects for the rest of the year.
Risk : - Higher Expection on earning growth from Wilmar International in Singapore Stock Exchange. Too optismistic. Very risky now.
Wilmar International, the world''s largest listed palm oil firm, reported a better-than-expected 35 percent rise in quarterly profit, helped by a one-timegain, and said it was otimistic about prospects for the rest of the year.
Risk : - Higher Expection on earning growth from Wilmar International in Singapore Stock Exchange. Too optismistic. Very risky now.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
GENTING SP : Casino Entry Fee $100 for Singaporean
According to some research from Brokerage House, S$100 entry fee for local Singaporeans.
Is S$100 really a big amount for Singaporean?
- Everyday, a lot "customer"s are Q-ing outside Singapore Pools(www.singaporepools.com.sg) to buy TOTO/Lucky Draw/4D. Business is extremely good.
- If want to go to legal Casino, they have to travel to Malaysia KL Genting, it takes 4 hours journey. Bus ticket cost them S$70 (two-way). Taxi, Accommodation, Food, How much?
GENTING MALAYSIA
Let's make some calculation for 2-days in Msia-Genting :-
1) Food - S$20
2) Accomodation - S$40
3) Bus ticket (two way) - S$70.00
4) Total Travel Period - 8 hours - For gambler, 8 hours will allow them to play many rounds.
Total Expense - S$130.00
GENTING SENTOSA
How about GENTING SENTOSA TRIP for Singaporean?
1) Entry fee - S$100.
2) SMRT-MRT- S$5
Total Expense - S$105.00
Conclusion:-
They can save up to S$25 and save travel times. Time is $$$ for Serious Gambler. They can earn back 105 within 1minute. :)
Another Points :-
I guess A lot of malaysians from Johor Bharu(Malaysia) will travel to visit GENTING SENTOSA and have some "BET". Why not spend long journey from JB -> KL -> GENTING HIGHLAND. Don't waste $$ & Time lar !!!
Is S$100 really a big amount for Singaporean?
- Everyday, a lot "customer"s are Q-ing outside Singapore Pools(www.singaporepools.com.sg) to buy TOTO/Lucky Draw/4D. Business is extremely good.
- If want to go to legal Casino, they have to travel to Malaysia KL Genting, it takes 4 hours journey. Bus ticket cost them S$70 (two-way). Taxi, Accommodation, Food, How much?
GENTING MALAYSIA
Let's make some calculation for 2-days in Msia-Genting :-
1) Food - S$20
2) Accomodation - S$40
3) Bus ticket (two way) - S$70.00
4) Total Travel Period - 8 hours - For gambler, 8 hours will allow them to play many rounds.
Total Expense - S$130.00
GENTING SENTOSA
How about GENTING SENTOSA TRIP for Singaporean?
1) Entry fee - S$100.
2) SMRT-MRT- S$5
Total Expense - S$105.00
Conclusion:-
They can save up to S$25 and save travel times. Time is $$$ for Serious Gambler. They can earn back 105 within 1minute. :)
Another Points :-
I guess A lot of malaysians from Johor Bharu(Malaysia) will travel to visit GENTING SENTOSA and have some "BET". Why not spend long journey from JB -> KL -> GENTING HIGHLAND. Don't waste $$ & Time lar !!!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Buffet think High Inflation coming??!!
Warren Buffet bought the railway. Why?
- This Railway is used to distribute commodities in US.
- Emerging Countries like China, is hungry for Commodities.
- Hedge against High inflation.
Jim Roger - Strong recommendation on Commodities --------------->>> China's government link fund is shopping on commodties related company from 2008-2009.
What happen Later? Commodities Price UP SOON...
My Strategy : BULLISH ON COMMODITIES SECTOR NOW
- This Railway is used to distribute commodities in US.
- Emerging Countries like China, is hungry for Commodities.
- Hedge against High inflation.
Jim Roger - Strong recommendation on Commodities --------------->>> China's government link fund is shopping on commodties related company from 2008-2009.
What happen Later? Commodities Price UP SOON...
My Strategy : BULLISH ON COMMODITIES SECTOR NOW
MAXIS.KL : New Component in FBM30KLCI
Target price RM5.80
Final Price RM4.75
Institutional Price RM5.00
According to media reports, Maxis has fixed the final retail price of its IPO at RM4.75, being the lower of the initial IPO price of RM5.20 and 95% of the institutional price of RM5.00, following the closing of the institutional offering yesterday.
At the lower end. The final price is at the low end of the indicative range of RM4.80-RM5.50 and a reflection of the valuation appetite among institutions for the stock. Based on the final price, Maxis’ go-to-the market equity valuation of RM35.6bn will price its shares at 14x-15x FY09/FY10 earnings and 9x CY10 EV/EBITDA. Our fair value on the stock ranges from RM5.30-RM5.80 which implies CY10 EPS of 14.8x-16.2x, within the PER range of regional cmparables and Digi’s 16.1x FY10 EPS. To be included as a component stock come 20 November. Maxis will be automatically included as a component of the KLCI with effect from 20 November. It would be the largest telco constituent (estimated weightage of 6.1% based on our calculation), raising the overall telecoms sector weightage on the index to 14.5% from 8.8% previously. Showing the numbers. Maxis would have to demonstrate its ability to
(i) maintain a generous dividend payout (subject to the minimum 75% payout guidance) and
(ii) supplanting the slowing growth in the domestic mobile market via stronger data revenues.
We had highlighted in our IPO note that Maxis should have no issue meeting its dividend obligations given the superior FCF yields projected of 8-10% for FY10-FY11, comfortably over and above the projected net dividend yields of 4.8-6.1% for FY10/11 based on management’s guidance. There is scope for management to return more cash on the back of proactive capital management, including the gearing up of its balance sheet (net gearing of 0.6x post listing).
Initiating coverage with a BUY. We are initiating coverage on Maxis with a BUY recommendation with a fair value of RM5.80 based on DCF (WACC: 9%, TG: 1.5%). Key share price re-rating catalysts are (i) the stronger than expected earnings going forward (ii) and (ii) higher than expected dividend payouts.
Final Price RM4.75
Institutional Price RM5.00
According to media reports, Maxis has fixed the final retail price of its IPO at RM4.75, being the lower of the initial IPO price of RM5.20 and 95% of the institutional price of RM5.00, following the closing of the institutional offering yesterday.
At the lower end. The final price is at the low end of the indicative range of RM4.80-RM5.50 and a reflection of the valuation appetite among institutions for the stock. Based on the final price, Maxis’ go-to-the market equity valuation of RM35.6bn will price its shares at 14x-15x FY09/FY10 earnings and 9x CY10 EV/EBITDA. Our fair value on the stock ranges from RM5.30-RM5.80 which implies CY10 EPS of 14.8x-16.2x, within the PER range of regional cmparables and Digi’s 16.1x FY10 EPS. To be included as a component stock come 20 November. Maxis will be automatically included as a component of the KLCI with effect from 20 November. It would be the largest telco constituent (estimated weightage of 6.1% based on our calculation), raising the overall telecoms sector weightage on the index to 14.5% from 8.8% previously. Showing the numbers. Maxis would have to demonstrate its ability to
(i) maintain a generous dividend payout (subject to the minimum 75% payout guidance) and
(ii) supplanting the slowing growth in the domestic mobile market via stronger data revenues.
We had highlighted in our IPO note that Maxis should have no issue meeting its dividend obligations given the superior FCF yields projected of 8-10% for FY10-FY11, comfortably over and above the projected net dividend yields of 4.8-6.1% for FY10/11 based on management’s guidance. There is scope for management to return more cash on the back of proactive capital management, including the gearing up of its balance sheet (net gearing of 0.6x post listing).
Initiating coverage with a BUY. We are initiating coverage on Maxis with a BUY recommendation with a fair value of RM5.80 based on DCF (WACC: 9%, TG: 1.5%). Key share price re-rating catalysts are (i) the stronger than expected earnings going forward (ii) and (ii) higher than expected dividend payouts.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Salary Scales
Salary scales, as you may guess, are in the stratosphere. According to Instituional Investor in mid-1995, "the bulk of experienced analysts make between $300,000 and 500,000 a year; standouts receive more than $600,000. Then there is the million dollar a year club , which includes several dozen of the Street's outstanding oracles. Income-wise, they are in a class with entertainers and professional atheletes.
GENTING Singapore Plc : Swinging open its doors in Jan 2010 : TP 1.27
Maintain Trading Buy. Quoting Genting Group’s chairman Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, Bloomberg reported that Resorts World at Sentosa (RWS) is on track to open in early Jan 2010. While not entirely a surprise, the early opening will be a positive, in our view, as: 1) it falls within the earlier part of its 1Q2010 guidance; and
2) RWS can fully capture holiday-makers during next year’s Chinese New Year festivities. Also, RWS’s debut is very likely to be ahead of its rival’s, Marina Bay Sands (MBS). We continue to anticipate growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date. We retain our FY09-11 earnings estimates and end-CY10 sum-of-the-parts target price of S$1.27. Reiterate TRADING BUY with share-price catalysts likely to come from:
1) this concrete opening date;
2) more aggressive marketing efforts;
3) the award of its casino licence; and
4) a potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period if MBS opens later.
Reason:
Positive development. The early Jan 2010 opening date is not entirely a surprise. GS has always guided for a RWS debut in 1Q2010. The timing excites us more as: 1) it falls within the earlier part of its 1Q2010 guidance; and 2) RWS would be able to capture the Chinese New Year crowd, as the Lunar New Year falls on 14 Feb next year. More importantly, an early Jan 2010 debut is very likely to be ahead of MBS’s expected Jan or Feb 2010 opening date. We note that RWS’s first event would be a ChildAid Concert, to take place on Dec 19-21 at its Festive Grand Theatre. Although RWS clarified earlier on that the theatre would be the only property accessible then, we do not discount the possibility of a soft opening of the resort to selected guests in conjunction with the concert.
Expecting more news flow. Besides this opening date, we expect RWS to step up its marketing efforts in the coming weeks as it seeks to build up excitement ahead of its opening. Another key event to watch for is the award of its casino licence, expected before year-end.
Still positive on RWS’s prospects. We remain optimistic on RWS’s prospects, especially with a more concrete opening date. Furthermore, RWS’s competitor appears still quite a distance form the finishing line. A potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period would be positive for RWS and could boost its numbers beyond our earlier estimates, especially with growing anticipation for the debut of Singapore’s two integrated resorts.
Valuation & Recommendation
Still a TRADING BUY. No change to our FY09-11 earnings estimates. Growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date and newsflow on RWS’s intensified marketing and rollout efforts, together with the award of a casino licence sometime in 4Q09 are expected to provide stock catalysts. GS remains a TRADING BUY.
2) RWS can fully capture holiday-makers during next year’s Chinese New Year festivities. Also, RWS’s debut is very likely to be ahead of its rival’s, Marina Bay Sands (MBS). We continue to anticipate growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date. We retain our FY09-11 earnings estimates and end-CY10 sum-of-the-parts target price of S$1.27. Reiterate TRADING BUY with share-price catalysts likely to come from:
1) this concrete opening date;
2) more aggressive marketing efforts;
3) the award of its casino licence; and
4) a potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period if MBS opens later.
Reason:
Positive development. The early Jan 2010 opening date is not entirely a surprise. GS has always guided for a RWS debut in 1Q2010. The timing excites us more as: 1) it falls within the earlier part of its 1Q2010 guidance; and 2) RWS would be able to capture the Chinese New Year crowd, as the Lunar New Year falls on 14 Feb next year. More importantly, an early Jan 2010 debut is very likely to be ahead of MBS’s expected Jan or Feb 2010 opening date. We note that RWS’s first event would be a ChildAid Concert, to take place on Dec 19-21 at its Festive Grand Theatre. Although RWS clarified earlier on that the theatre would be the only property accessible then, we do not discount the possibility of a soft opening of the resort to selected guests in conjunction with the concert.
Expecting more news flow. Besides this opening date, we expect RWS to step up its marketing efforts in the coming weeks as it seeks to build up excitement ahead of its opening. Another key event to watch for is the award of its casino licence, expected before year-end.
Still positive on RWS’s prospects. We remain optimistic on RWS’s prospects, especially with a more concrete opening date. Furthermore, RWS’s competitor appears still quite a distance form the finishing line. A potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period would be positive for RWS and could boost its numbers beyond our earlier estimates, especially with growing anticipation for the debut of Singapore’s two integrated resorts.
Valuation & Recommendation
Still a TRADING BUY. No change to our FY09-11 earnings estimates. Growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date and newsflow on RWS’s intensified marketing and rollout efforts, together with the award of a casino licence sometime in 4Q09 are expected to provide stock catalysts. GS remains a TRADING BUY.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Parkson.KL - Less speculative index stock but High Growth
TP: RM6.50
RNAV - 24x PE for its China operation, 12x PE for Malaysia operation and 10x PE for both Vietnam and excluded stores.
Why I Like Parkson?
1) Business Growth in China and Vietnam -> Next Asia Big Brother!
2) Strong Profit Margin.
3) Strong Net Earning - Currently, based on my financial statement analysis techique, strong net earning + low maintainance cost + low debt -> Super Profitable Business
4) EPS growing consistently.
5) Strengthening RMB against RM. -> RMB's actual rate is MYR/RMB=1. Please read more about The Ascent of Money about RMB. You will find the trick !
6) Currently, Parkson is very popular in China. According to some China Friends, "this is big retailing department store in every big city"
7) Cheng Family is big shareholder. Cheng will work very hard to make the business success. "Non-Family owned Business is not so good in Asia because CEO will not work hard if he just a High-Income Employee". High Flyer CEO can TALK COCK more than WORK.
Example :- A director with MBA (XXXX Company) - Learn How to Play tennis during office hours, Read Non-job related News, Send non-sense Email, Fuck Too Much Mid-nite then work @home.---->>>>>> WASTING SHAREHOLDER's MONEY!
RNAV - 24x PE for its China operation, 12x PE for Malaysia operation and 10x PE for both Vietnam and excluded stores.
Why I Like Parkson?
1) Business Growth in China and Vietnam -> Next Asia Big Brother!
2) Strong Profit Margin.
3) Strong Net Earning - Currently, based on my financial statement analysis techique, strong net earning + low maintainance cost + low debt -> Super Profitable Business
4) EPS growing consistently.
5) Strengthening RMB against RM. -> RMB's actual rate is MYR/RMB=1. Please read more about The Ascent of Money about RMB. You will find the trick !
6) Currently, Parkson is very popular in China. According to some China Friends, "this is big retailing department store in every big city"
7) Cheng Family is big shareholder. Cheng will work very hard to make the business success. "Non-Family owned Business is not so good in Asia because CEO will not work hard if he just a High-Income Employee". High Flyer CEO can TALK COCK more than WORK.
Example :- A director with MBA (XXXX Company) - Learn How to Play tennis during office hours, Read Non-job related News, Send non-sense Email, Fuck Too Much Mid-nite then work @home.---->>>>>> WASTING SHAREHOLDER's MONEY!
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