News
Genting Singapore reported 3Q2010 core net profit of S$191mn, down 38% qoq, after market closed on November 11. Core profits were weak, mainly on sharply lower EBITDA profits at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), down 32% qoq. RWS net revenues fell 15% qoq to S$732mn vs. GSe S$759mn and EBITDA was S$344mn vs. GSe S$370mn, both missing our expectations.
Analysis
Similar to 2Q, there was not much disclosure on RWS’ gaming operations. Excluding non-gaming top-line estimates, we estimate RWS had S$622mn net gaming wins in 3Q – adjusting for VIP rebates (still at 1.2%), gross gaming revenues were S$823mn or S$8.9mn/day (2Q: S$10mn/day, 1Q: S$8.3mn/day). Compared with Marina Bay Sands’ (MBS) 3Q S$8.1mn/day, RWS lost market share in 3Q to 53% vs. 2Q’s 67% on MBS’ strong ramp-up. RWS attributed the weaker top-line to below-industry VIP win rate, a complete opposite to 2Q; while some investors may see this as purely “down to luck,” we believe it highlights Singapore’s VIP gaming market weakness of generally low volume, high bet stakes, which can swing VIP rates either way. Mass market play was also flattish due to competition (only MBS grew); we think we could be hitting near-term cap. Combining both MBS/RWS revenues, Singapore is annualizing US$4.6bn, 15% higher than 2Q and currently 20% of GS 2010E Macau gaming market. RWS 3Q EBITDA margins also fell to 47% vs. 58% in 2Q. Though this was somewhat expected – given 2Q was inflated by high VIP win rate – it was still lower than our 49% forecast. Bad debt provisions were flat, though we note receivables are creeping up, now 1.9% of VIP rolling chip volume (vs. 2Q’s 1.5%).
Implications
We view the results as disappointing, and believe it could lead to negative price reaction. 2Q results were clearly one-offs, and investors extrapolating that momentum will need to lower expectations. Our estimates and price target are under review pending further details.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Why I Like Mermaid Maritime (DU4)
Business Overview:-
Provides offshore logistics support services through the chartering of oil and gas related vessels and assets.
Major Shareholders:-
Thoresen Thai Agencies PLC, Soleado Holdings, Thailand Equity Fund
Provides offshore logistics support services through the chartering of oil and gas related vessels and assets.
Major Shareholders:-
Thoresen Thai Agencies PLC, Soleado Holdings, Thailand Equity Fund
Plantation Market Outlook
What's New
Crude palm oil (CPO) production rose just 4.7% in Oct 10 which was expected to be the peak in the production cycle. The increment in Oct 10 was lower than market expectation of 15% mom.
Based on ground checks, Indonesia’s production for Oct 10 also grew below expectation, in the range of 13-15% mom.
• Average CPO price at RM2,853/tonne to date, slightly above our full-year 2010 expectation of RM2,600/tonne. Thus, we are confident of meeting our estimate, which could be slightly better for 2010 as a result of the current tight supply-demand situation.
• Expecting the return of China to the export market. Exports dipped 0.5% mom in Oct 10 and current export numbers were reportedly 1.1% lower in the first 10 days of Nov 10. Despite this, we still expect China to resume an increase in edible oil purchases to replenish its inventory and take shipments before the weather starts turning cooler by end-November.
• The peak in production has passed. CPO production rose 4.7% mom as expected, but the pick-up in Oct 10 after the return of workers from Indonesia was not as strong as last year’s (i.e. Oct 09: production +27%mom). Beyond this, we expect production to fall moving into the lower production cycle in 1Q11.
Crude palm oil (CPO) production rose just 4.7% in Oct 10 which was expected to be the peak in the production cycle. The increment in Oct 10 was lower than market expectation of 15% mom.
Based on ground checks, Indonesia’s production for Oct 10 also grew below expectation, in the range of 13-15% mom.
• Average CPO price at RM2,853/tonne to date, slightly above our full-year 2010 expectation of RM2,600/tonne. Thus, we are confident of meeting our estimate, which could be slightly better for 2010 as a result of the current tight supply-demand situation.
• Expecting the return of China to the export market. Exports dipped 0.5% mom in Oct 10 and current export numbers were reportedly 1.1% lower in the first 10 days of Nov 10. Despite this, we still expect China to resume an increase in edible oil purchases to replenish its inventory and take shipments before the weather starts turning cooler by end-November.
• The peak in production has passed. CPO production rose 4.7% mom as expected, but the pick-up in Oct 10 after the return of workers from Indonesia was not as strong as last year’s (i.e. Oct 09: production +27%mom). Beyond this, we expect production to fall moving into the lower production cycle in 1Q11.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
MCA buys 42% stake in Star for RM1.28bil
KUALA LUMPUR: MCA yesterday announced it has bought a 42.4% stake in Star Publications (M) Bhd for RM1.28bil, or RM4.09 a share, from its wholly-owned subsidiary Huaren Holdings Sdn Bhd and is in the process of maintaining its beneficial interests in Star.
“The transfer is effected for the purpose of reorganising MCA’s investments, whereby Huaren Holdings will divest its passive investment in Star and increase focus on its investments in unquoted shares and other assets, in order to achieve greater management efficiency and provide maximum return to stakeholders,” said MCA in a statement.
“MCA’s investments in Star will continue to be passive and long-term in nature” it said.
(Source: The Star)
Comments:-
When we invest in Stock, we should consider long term investment. For those investor, who always looking for short term gain, it will not make you rich in stock investing. It makes you greedy and heading to huge losses in long run.
I like their concept "Be Passive and Long Term in Nature"...
“The transfer is effected for the purpose of reorganising MCA’s investments, whereby Huaren Holdings will divest its passive investment in Star and increase focus on its investments in unquoted shares and other assets, in order to achieve greater management efficiency and provide maximum return to stakeholders,” said MCA in a statement.
“MCA’s investments in Star will continue to be passive and long-term in nature” it said.
(Source: The Star)
Comments:-
When we invest in Stock, we should consider long term investment. For those investor, who always looking for short term gain, it will not make you rich in stock investing. It makes you greedy and heading to huge losses in long run.
I like their concept "Be Passive and Long Term in Nature"...
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Singapore gaming : MBS aggressive ramping up
According to its parent's 3Q results, Marina Bay Sands (MBS) Singapore saw aggressive operations ramp, with gross gaming revenue rose 58% QoQ to S$7.8m. We estimate that Singapore gaming market may have grown 11-12% QoQ to S$17.5m a day based on our S$9.7m/day est at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS). Annualised, this suggests Singapore gaming market size of S$6.4bn. In terms of market share, we believe MBS has gained share to roughly 45% vs 31% in 2Q. More importantly, management indicated strong gaming revenue growth in October to S$10.9m/day (up 40% from 3Q) partly due to Golden Week holiday and heavy VIP hold. We maintain our view that Singapore could end the year at S$7.0bn annualized, with upside risk. Genting Singapore will report on 11 November. For 3Q, we expect RWS to report EBITDA of S$380m vs S$503m in 2Q due largely to low VIP hold. DB forecasts 3Q RWS EBITDA of 50.8%. Beyond the weak 3Q, we remain positive on the longer term outlook of Singapore market and maintain our forecasts of US$6.0n market in 2011. Our TP of S$2.60 TP values Singapore gaming at 14x 2011 EV/EBITDA. Key risks: prolong delays in junket licensing, regulatory changes and lower-than-expected market share.
Key statistics at MBS. MBS reported US$414.5m of net casino revenue or c. US$549m of gross gaming revenue in 3Q. This implies gross daily gaming revenue of US$6.0m or S$7.8m, up 58% QoQ (or S$8.0m on normalized hold of 2.85%, up 45% QoQ). Gross gaming revenue breakdown - 50% VIP; 36% mass and 14% slots. Growth were underpinned primarily by higher VIP rolling which rose 89% QoQ, averaging at US$113m a day vs US$60m in 2Q. VIP rolling grew further to US$168.3m in October (+50% vs 3Q). Property EBITDA margin stood at 49.7% in 3Q (or 51% on normalized hold).
Key statistics at MBS. MBS reported US$414.5m of net casino revenue or c. US$549m of gross gaming revenue in 3Q. This implies gross daily gaming revenue of US$6.0m or S$7.8m, up 58% QoQ (or S$8.0m on normalized hold of 2.85%, up 45% QoQ). Gross gaming revenue breakdown - 50% VIP; 36% mass and 14% slots. Growth were underpinned primarily by higher VIP rolling which rose 89% QoQ, averaging at US$113m a day vs US$60m in 2Q. VIP rolling grew further to US$168.3m in October (+50% vs 3Q). Property EBITDA margin stood at 49.7% in 3Q (or 51% on normalized hold).
Monday, October 25, 2010
Miller: Best Time to Buy Stocks Since Early 80s
Legendary Legg Mason fund manager Bill Miller is seeing a variety of factors aligning to make this the best time for long-term investors to buy stocks since the early 1980s. Miller, who beat the S&P 500 for 15 straight years before falling on hard times in recent years, also tells CNBC that he’d “be surprised if the market isn’t up 20% in the next 12 months”, thanks to Federal Reserve policy, a strengthening economy, and “the fact that stocks are incredibly cheap” relative to bonds.
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