Quarterly Result
9MFY10 core net profit of RM253.6m accounting for 66.9% and 61.6% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We consider this within our expectation as we expect a stronger 4Q arising from higher CPO prices (which has risen by 12.6% since Oct).
Rating
Still undervalued despite recent share price run up, P/E and P/B still not demanding, relatively high and quarterly net dividend yield, double-digit earnings growth in FY10-11 and market yet to fully appreciate the hidden values.
Valuation
Target price maintained at RM6.82 (at 10% holding company discount to unchanged SOP of RM7.58).
Disclosure :-
Author has an interest in Boustead Holding Bhd
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Technical Analysis on DJIA
Our preference: as long as 11200 is not broken up, we favour a down move with 10915 and then 10865 as next targets.
Alternative scenario: a downside breakout of 11200 would open the way to 10865.
Alternative scenario: a downside breakout of 11200 would open the way to 10865.
Sell Media
- Sold out Media because of global sell down. Temporary raise some cash in my porfolio to reduce total risk.
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
3Q below on lower revenue and margin; buy on weakness
GENS reports 3Q EBITDA of S$347.6m (-31% QoQ), ex UK operation. RWS 3Q Ebitda of S$346.5m came in 8.8% below DB's S$380m and at lower end of consensus range of S$340-420m. RWS revenue fell 15% QoQ to S$731.8m on normalised VIP hold (vs hold heavy in 2Q). Property EBITDA margin fell to 47.3% (vs 2Q at 58.5% and DBe of 50.8%). NP of S$187.8m came in 11% below DB's S$212m. Bad debt provision was S$23.5m in 3Q (similar to 2Q). For 9mFY10, GENS achieves EBITDA of S$995.1m (inc UK) vs consensus S$1.35bn for FY10E. Despite weaker 3Q results and a seasonally stronger 4Q, street est which implies 4Q EBITDA of S$356m, is still too low. Given the weaker than expected 3Q results, any share price weakness offers good buying opportunity for exposure to Singapore's robust gaming market. We maintain RWS full year Ebitda projection of S$1.426bn, suggesting 4Q Ebitda of S$470m. On margin, GENS guided EBITDA margin of 47-50%, lower than DB's 54% projected for 2011 onwards.
S$9.4m/day gross gaming revenue in 3Q. We est that Singapore gaming market expanded c 8% QoQ to S$17.2m/day in 3Q. RWS continued to lead with c 55% market share (vs 69% in 2Q). For the Q, RWS has 470 tables and 1200 slots (vs 631 tables and 1798 slots at MBS). Hotels achieved AOR of 71%; ARR of S$250/nite (vs S$263 in 2Q) and USS daily visitation rose slightly to 7,500 with avg spent of S$81/pax (vs S$84 in 2Q).
Continuous ramping up. Started with 300 tables, GENS now has 470 and likely to end the year with more than 500 tables. The reopening of Battlestar Galactica is scheduled for early next year while two more new USS rides will be introduced by mid and 2H 2011, bringing USS capacity to 18,000 from 8,000 currently. West zone is scheduled to start operations progressively from mid 2011, beginning with the Maritime Xperiential Museum.
S$9.4m/day gross gaming revenue in 3Q. We est that Singapore gaming market expanded c 8% QoQ to S$17.2m/day in 3Q. RWS continued to lead with c 55% market share (vs 69% in 2Q). For the Q, RWS has 470 tables and 1200 slots (vs 631 tables and 1798 slots at MBS). Hotels achieved AOR of 71%; ARR of S$250/nite (vs S$263 in 2Q) and USS daily visitation rose slightly to 7,500 with avg spent of S$81/pax (vs S$84 in 2Q).
Continuous ramping up. Started with 300 tables, GENS now has 470 and likely to end the year with more than 500 tables. The reopening of Battlestar Galactica is scheduled for early next year while two more new USS rides will be introduced by mid and 2H 2011, bringing USS capacity to 18,000 from 8,000 currently. West zone is scheduled to start operations progressively from mid 2011, beginning with the Maritime Xperiential Museum.
First Take: Singapore casino 3Q revenues/margins disappoint
News
Genting Singapore reported 3Q2010 core net profit of S$191mn, down 38% qoq, after market closed on November 11. Core profits were weak, mainly on sharply lower EBITDA profits at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), down 32% qoq. RWS net revenues fell 15% qoq to S$732mn vs. GSe S$759mn and EBITDA was S$344mn vs. GSe S$370mn, both missing our expectations.
Analysis
Similar to 2Q, there was not much disclosure on RWS’ gaming operations. Excluding non-gaming top-line estimates, we estimate RWS had S$622mn net gaming wins in 3Q – adjusting for VIP rebates (still at 1.2%), gross gaming revenues were S$823mn or S$8.9mn/day (2Q: S$10mn/day, 1Q: S$8.3mn/day). Compared with Marina Bay Sands’ (MBS) 3Q S$8.1mn/day, RWS lost market share in 3Q to 53% vs. 2Q’s 67% on MBS’ strong ramp-up. RWS attributed the weaker top-line to below-industry VIP win rate, a complete opposite to 2Q; while some investors may see this as purely “down to luck,” we believe it highlights Singapore’s VIP gaming market weakness of generally low volume, high bet stakes, which can swing VIP rates either way. Mass market play was also flattish due to competition (only MBS grew); we think we could be hitting near-term cap. Combining both MBS/RWS revenues, Singapore is annualizing US$4.6bn, 15% higher than 2Q and currently 20% of GS 2010E Macau gaming market. RWS 3Q EBITDA margins also fell to 47% vs. 58% in 2Q. Though this was somewhat expected – given 2Q was inflated by high VIP win rate – it was still lower than our 49% forecast. Bad debt provisions were flat, though we note receivables are creeping up, now 1.9% of VIP rolling chip volume (vs. 2Q’s 1.5%).
Implications
We view the results as disappointing, and believe it could lead to negative price reaction. 2Q results were clearly one-offs, and investors extrapolating that momentum will need to lower expectations. Our estimates and price target are under review pending further details.
Genting Singapore reported 3Q2010 core net profit of S$191mn, down 38% qoq, after market closed on November 11. Core profits were weak, mainly on sharply lower EBITDA profits at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), down 32% qoq. RWS net revenues fell 15% qoq to S$732mn vs. GSe S$759mn and EBITDA was S$344mn vs. GSe S$370mn, both missing our expectations.
Analysis
Similar to 2Q, there was not much disclosure on RWS’ gaming operations. Excluding non-gaming top-line estimates, we estimate RWS had S$622mn net gaming wins in 3Q – adjusting for VIP rebates (still at 1.2%), gross gaming revenues were S$823mn or S$8.9mn/day (2Q: S$10mn/day, 1Q: S$8.3mn/day). Compared with Marina Bay Sands’ (MBS) 3Q S$8.1mn/day, RWS lost market share in 3Q to 53% vs. 2Q’s 67% on MBS’ strong ramp-up. RWS attributed the weaker top-line to below-industry VIP win rate, a complete opposite to 2Q; while some investors may see this as purely “down to luck,” we believe it highlights Singapore’s VIP gaming market weakness of generally low volume, high bet stakes, which can swing VIP rates either way. Mass market play was also flattish due to competition (only MBS grew); we think we could be hitting near-term cap. Combining both MBS/RWS revenues, Singapore is annualizing US$4.6bn, 15% higher than 2Q and currently 20% of GS 2010E Macau gaming market. RWS 3Q EBITDA margins also fell to 47% vs. 58% in 2Q. Though this was somewhat expected – given 2Q was inflated by high VIP win rate – it was still lower than our 49% forecast. Bad debt provisions were flat, though we note receivables are creeping up, now 1.9% of VIP rolling chip volume (vs. 2Q’s 1.5%).
Implications
We view the results as disappointing, and believe it could lead to negative price reaction. 2Q results were clearly one-offs, and investors extrapolating that momentum will need to lower expectations. Our estimates and price target are under review pending further details.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Why I Like Mermaid Maritime (DU4)
Business Overview:-
Provides offshore logistics support services through the chartering of oil and gas related vessels and assets.
Major Shareholders:-
Thoresen Thai Agencies PLC, Soleado Holdings, Thailand Equity Fund
Provides offshore logistics support services through the chartering of oil and gas related vessels and assets.
Major Shareholders:-
Thoresen Thai Agencies PLC, Soleado Holdings, Thailand Equity Fund
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