Friday, November 12, 2010

3Q below on lower revenue and margin; buy on weakness

GENS reports 3Q EBITDA of S$347.6m (-31% QoQ), ex UK operation. RWS 3Q Ebitda of S$346.5m came in 8.8% below DB's S$380m and at lower end of consensus range of S$340-420m. RWS revenue fell 15% QoQ to S$731.8m on normalised VIP hold (vs hold heavy in 2Q). Property EBITDA margin fell to 47.3% (vs 2Q at 58.5% and DBe of 50.8%). NP of S$187.8m came in 11% below DB's S$212m. Bad debt provision was S$23.5m in 3Q (similar to 2Q). For 9mFY10, GENS achieves EBITDA of S$995.1m (inc UK) vs consensus S$1.35bn for FY10E. Despite weaker 3Q results and a seasonally stronger 4Q, street est which implies 4Q EBITDA of S$356m, is still too low. Given the weaker than expected 3Q results, any share price weakness offers good buying opportunity for exposure to Singapore's robust gaming market. We maintain RWS full year Ebitda projection of S$1.426bn, suggesting 4Q Ebitda of S$470m. On margin, GENS guided EBITDA margin of 47-50%, lower than DB's 54% projected for 2011 onwards.

S$9.4m/day gross gaming revenue in 3Q. We est that Singapore gaming market expanded c 8% QoQ to S$17.2m/day in 3Q. RWS continued to lead with c 55% market share (vs 69% in 2Q). For the Q, RWS has 470 tables and 1200 slots (vs 631 tables and 1798 slots at MBS). Hotels achieved AOR of 71%; ARR of S$250/nite (vs S$263 in 2Q) and USS daily visitation rose slightly to 7,500 with avg spent of S$81/pax (vs S$84 in 2Q).

Continuous ramping up. Started with 300 tables, GENS now has 470 and likely to end the year with more than 500 tables. The reopening of Battlestar Galactica is scheduled for early next year while two more new USS rides will be introduced by mid and 2H 2011, bringing USS capacity to 18,000 from 8,000 currently. West zone is scheduled to start operations progressively from mid 2011, beginning with the Maritime Xperiential Museum.

First Take: Singapore casino 3Q revenues/margins disappoint


Genting Singapore reported 3Q2010 core net profit of S$191mn, down 38% qoq, after market closed on November 11. Core profits were weak, mainly on sharply lower EBITDA profits at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS), down 32% qoq. RWS net revenues fell 15% qoq to S$732mn vs. GSe S$759mn and EBITDA was S$344mn vs. GSe S$370mn, both missing our expectations.


Similar to 2Q, there was not much disclosure on RWS’ gaming operations. Excluding non-gaming top-line estimates, we estimate RWS had S$622mn net gaming wins in 3Q – adjusting for VIP rebates (still at 1.2%), gross gaming revenues were S$823mn or S$8.9mn/day (2Q: S$10mn/day, 1Q: S$8.3mn/day). Compared with Marina Bay Sands’ (MBS) 3Q S$8.1mn/day, RWS lost market share in 3Q to 53% vs. 2Q’s 67% on MBS’ strong ramp-up. RWS attributed the weaker top-line to below-industry VIP win rate, a complete opposite to 2Q; while some investors may see this as purely “down to luck,” we believe it highlights Singapore’s VIP gaming market weakness of generally low volume, high bet stakes, which can swing VIP rates either way. Mass market play was also flattish due to competition (only MBS grew); we think we could be hitting near-term cap. Combining both MBS/RWS revenues, Singapore is annualizing US$4.6bn, 15% higher than 2Q and currently 20% of GS 2010E Macau gaming market. RWS 3Q EBITDA margins also fell to 47% vs. 58% in 2Q. Though this was somewhat expected – given 2Q was inflated by high VIP win rate – it was still lower than our 49% forecast. Bad debt provisions were flat, though we note receivables are creeping up, now 1.9% of VIP rolling chip volume (vs. 2Q’s 1.5%).


We view the results as disappointing, and believe it could lead to negative price reaction. 2Q results were clearly one-offs, and investors extrapolating that momentum will need to lower expectations. Our estimates and price target are under review pending further details.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Why I Like Mermaid Maritime (DU4)

Business Overview:-
Provides offshore logistics support services through the chartering of oil and gas related vessels and assets.

Major Shareholders:-
Thoresen Thai Agencies PLC, Soleado Holdings, Thailand Equity Fund

Plantation Market Outlook

What's New
Crude palm oil (CPO) production rose just 4.7% in Oct 10 which was expected to be the peak in the production cycle. The increment in Oct 10 was lower than market expectation of 15% mom.
Based on ground checks, Indonesia’s production for Oct 10 also grew below expectation, in the range of 13-15% mom.

• Average CPO price at RM2,853/tonne to date, slightly above our full-year 2010 expectation of RM2,600/tonne. Thus, we are confident of meeting our estimate, which could be slightly better for 2010 as a result of the current tight supply-demand situation.

• Expecting the return of China to the export market. Exports dipped 0.5% mom in Oct 10 and current export numbers were reportedly 1.1% lower in the first 10 days of Nov 10. Despite this, we still expect China to resume an increase in edible oil purchases to replenish its inventory and take shipments before the weather starts turning cooler by end-November.

• The peak in production has passed. CPO production rose 4.7% mom as expected, but the pick-up in Oct 10 after the return of workers from Indonesia was not as strong as last year’s (i.e. Oct 09: production +27%mom). Beyond this, we expect production to fall moving into the lower production cycle in 1Q11.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

MCA buys 42% stake in Star for RM1.28bil

KUALA LUMPUR: MCA yesterday announced it has bought a 42.4% stake in Star Publications (M) Bhd for RM1.28bil, or RM4.09 a share, from its wholly-owned subsidiary Huaren Holdings Sdn Bhd and is in the process of maintaining its beneficial interests in Star.
“The transfer is effected for the purpose of reorganising MCA’s investments, whereby Huaren Holdings will divest its passive investment in Star and increase focus on its investments in unquoted shares and other assets, in order to achieve greater management efficiency and provide maximum return to stakeholders,” said MCA in a statement.
“MCA’s investments in Star will continue to be passive and long-term in nature” it said.

(Source: The Star)

When we invest in Stock, we should consider long term investment. For those investor, who always looking for short term gain, it will not make you rich in stock investing. It makes you greedy and heading to huge losses in long run.

I like their concept "Be Passive and Long Term in Nature"...