Wednesday, December 30, 2009
-> Hong Kong's retail sales value rose 11.7% from a year ago in November
-> New residential mortgage loans approved fell by 11.1% from the prior month to HK$25.8 billion in November
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
future growth in the region:
1) natural resources wealth,
2) emerging industries,
3) the low cost of manufacturing
4) the growing consumer class.
Expect V SHAPE RECOVERY in 2010. Enjoy your trade!
Wishing you all a happy holiday, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010!
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
1) It should remove all fears of a deflationary environment unfolding in the US. Secondly, oil price has fallen for many weeks now, relieving the latent inflationary pressures. There are apparently various reasons for this welcomed development, example the fall in oil price. One, the supposedly weaker than expected oil demand from the US. Two, a strengthening US dollar. If these 2 reasons are valid, at this level, there's an apparent contradiction.
2)The USD is strengthening because investors are increasingly convinced that the US economic recovery is real, broadening,deepening and sustainable. If this view is valid, then, it can't be that oil demand is weak. If the oil demand is so weak, then the US economic recovery can't be strong. If the recovery is so weak, then, how can the USD be strengtheing? So, which view is correct?
Looking at the various economic and financial evidences, it would appear that the strengthening USD is the most accurate evidence to rely on. The US economic recovery is certainly gathering momentum, broadening and deepening. The latest monthly job report and the sustained and substansial fall in weekly initial claims are solid evidence of a strong recovery forming in background. Given this evidence, the weakness in oil price is a function of the USD strenghening and not weak oil demand in US economy. The surge in the producer price index is most likely a temporary affair. In addition, the strong USD would also mean that higher producer prices need not be translated into higher retail prices. Consequently the federal reserve still can keep the interest rates where they're for a while longer and has time to decide its next course of action vis-a-vis its interest rate policy.
Monday, December 21, 2009
-Early 1Q10 opening draws nearer. Genting Singapore (GS) is drawing nearer to its soft opening in Jan 2010 - we understand that this would involve the casino, four hotels (likely to be progressive) and Universal Studio Singapore (USS). We believe that the construction and fitting out is on track with many segments already done up - one such attraction would be its 1600-seat Festive Grand Theatre as Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) will host the children's charity concert ChildAid from 19-21 Dec 2009.
-USS ticket prices affordable. GS has also recently announced the pricing for USS, which will open with 20 of its 24 attractions ready to thrill visitors. A 1-day adult pass will cost S$66 during the weekdays and this goes up to S$72 during the weekends; a 1-day child (under 12) pass would cost S$48 and S$52, respectively. As compared to the other regional theme parks, we think that the basic pricing point should be pretty attractive enough to draw both local and foreigner visitors. For example, the Warner Bros Movie World in Australia and the Disney Land and Universal Studios in Japan would set an adult back S$90 per day; the USS 1-day adult ticket offers a discount of between 20.1% and 26.7%, depending on whether it is a weekday or weekend pass. Only the Disney Land in Hong Kong is cheaper but not by much - the USS 1-day pass is only 5.5% to 15.1% more expensive.
-Casino likely to see strong opening. As for its main casino business, if the recent robust casino revenues reported in Macau in 3Q09 and Oct 2009 are any indication, we expect the RWS casino to see a strong opening. Based on our industry checks, we believe that GS should have no problems attracting high rollers into its casino here, where it has a ready pool to tap on from the Genting group of companies. We also do not see a shortage of walk-in customers as RWS has already confirmed 30 events bookings.
-Maintain BUY with S$1.31 fair value. Although we are only expecting RWS to turn positive in 2011, a quicker than-expected turnaround is possible should visitation numbers turn out to be better-than-expected. As such, we maintain our BUY rating and S$1.31 fair value. Risks to our estimates include a deterioration of the global economic recovery as well as costoverruns for RWS' latter phases.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
“What I worry about [for] the individual investor is that they are underweight, perhaps, financials,” Mortimer tells CNBC. “A lot of taint has been put on that sector of the market, and I would just make sure that individuals … get to a market weight, a 10 or 15 percent weight of their portfolio [for financials] … even though it doesn’t appear that you want to own them.”
Despite what he calls a “violent” rebound in the stock market, Mortimer says he thinks stocks are fairly valued for an economy that is coming out of recession, and adds that he doesn’t think the rally has been “too far, too fast”.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
ACQUISITION OF 20% EQUITY INTEREST IN BERJAYA LOTTERY VIETNAM LIMITED [FORMERLY
KNOWN AS BERJAYA CORPORATION (LABUAN) LIMITED]
You are advised to read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment.
To read the entire contents of the announcement or attachment, please access
the Bursa website at http://www.bursamalaysia.com .
17/12/2009 06:07 PM
Ref Code: 20091217GA00215
4%(2011) -> 4.5%(2013) ----> 7%(2020)----> 15%(2040)
Special Situation Investing - We will try to monitor the Australia Stock Exchange to find great value stock in future.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
7:22PM LIONIND TAN SRI CHENG YONG KIM (1,413,991 Shares Acquired)
7:22PM LIONIND TAN SRI CHENG YONG KIM (1,413,991 Shares Acquired)
7:22PM LIONIND TAN SRI CHENG HENG JEM (1,413,991 Shares Acquired)
7:20PM LIONIND Dealings in Securities by a Principal Officer Outside Closed Period
- Tan Sri Cheng Yong Kim is the boss of LION Group. He will know well about LIONIND in term of business valuation & earning. His action is most probably very good because i don't think he will use big amount of cash to speculate the his own company's stock. In fact, i think he start see the orders from customers. Business is picking up.
Special Situation Blog : Mid Term Buy on LIONIND.
Target Price : RM2.00
Pls contact us for more details.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Friday, December 11, 2009
(Source: Financial Daily)
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Monday, December 7, 2009
1) Business offers negative working capital, but ROE is pretty impressive.
2) Parkson is much cheaper entry into Parkson Retail Group.
3) China's economy nowdays is similiar to Japan's economy of Sixties/Korea's of the Seventies.
Special Situation Blog rate Parkson Holdings -> Undervalued.
LONG TERM BUY
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Anthony Bolton left Cambridge University with a degree in engineering to start a career in the City. In 1979, aged 29, he was recruited by Fidelity, the international fund management group, as one of its first London-based investment managers, a move that proved to be the launch of a long and successful career as an investment manager. In surveys of professional investors, he is regularly voted the fund manager most respected by his peers. He will be retiring from full-time investment management at the end of 2007, while continuing to work part-time at Fidelity and spending more time on his charitable interests and his hobby, composing classical music. Anthony Bolton is married with three children and lives in Sussex.
I will post some investment strategies from Anthony Bolton in future. Please contact me if you need more information about this e-book. Thanks.
Friday, December 4, 2009
I read with some amusement professor Greenwald’s discussion of Berkshire Hathaway’s purchase of Burlington Northern (BNI), I could not disagree with his analysis more. One of my Native American friends says that one must be careful not to view things with “old eyes” and I fear that is what is happening to the professor’s view of Burlington Northern.
When I first began to look at railroads in the 1980’s, they were the very epitome of capital-intensive, labor-intensive companies consistently earning less than their cost of capital and that was during a period when they all had millions of acres low cost land holdings with attached mineral rights. At that time, the one true measure of a railroad’s operating success, its operating ratio, was rarely below 90%. Union work rules were killing them.
Since that time, a reduction in government regulation, mergers and disposals of surplus lines, changing crew consist rules, technology and improved motive power efficiency have combined to make railroads productive and highly profitable companies. They have created huge cash flows which have funded debt reduction and capital spending, making them much more profitable. Today, any railroad with a operating ratio in excess of 75% is considered to be poorly managed. They have not accomplished this by diversifying their business; their resource land grants are long gone they are almost pure rails now. They have not done it with increased leverage as they carry less debt and preferred than they did 10 years ago. They have done it by sticking to their knitting, serving the customer, driving down costs, capital discipline, technology investments and just hardnosed business practice.
An example of increased efficiency: changes in engine design have reduced the number of motive units needed per train, reducing costs in terms of both fuel and crew. Recently, GE introduced a new line of motive units with 16 cylinder higher horsepower diesel engines that, at sustained speeds, turn off four cylinders and maintain their speed on the remaining 12. The fuel savings are in the area of 30% for comparable runs.
The other issue unique to BNI is that the nature of its traffic has allowed it to replace many of its previously fixed costs with variable costs, giving it greater financial flexibility and the ability to change in an instant to accommodate business conditions. This in turn allows greater capital discipline and better returns.
While Buffett’s purchase of BNI does not seem to satisfy Berkshire’s traditional pattern of purchasing irreplaceable franchises, it does meet a more basic precept of being a toll-taker by offering a product an economy cannot do without. Most of the traffic on today’s railroads cannot be moved by any other modality. If we are going to continue to import goods from lower cost developing world countries, then the BNI route structure from the west coast ports to the mid west will be one of the few (two actually) to move that traffic.
Did he overpay? Maybe. Does it revalue all the rails? No. Will it work out for Buffett and his shareholders? Probably and better than most viewing it with “old eyes” can see at this point.
1. Payment of more than the instrinsic worth of the security.
2. Significant deterioration in a company's position.
3. Loss realized through actual sale.
4. Straying from fundamental investing disciplines.
1)For Long Term investors, short-term price fluactuations are of little important.
2)TRY NOT TO LET YOUR EMOTIONS AFFECT YOUR JUDGMENT. FEAR AND GREED ARE PROBABLY THE WORST EMOTIONS TO HAVE INCONNECTION WITH PURCHASE AND SALE OF STOCKS.
Eclectic Investor - Part I
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
The Swiss Embassy here said in a statement today that the investment fund had no relation whatsoever with the country.
“The company operates outside Switzerland and is not subject to the very stringent Swiss banking laws,” the embassy said.
“The reference to Switzerland with the attribute Swiss is solely made with the purpose to attract the unaware public to invest, thinking that they would be protected by Swiss laws,” it added.
The Swiss Embassy does not recommend the investment fund and advised the public to be very cautious before investing in the fund.
"If the return is really so profitable with guaranteed capital, i will be next Warren Buffet/Bill Gates after 10 years. I go to borrow USD1B from Maybank. After 5-10 years, i can replace Warren Buffet/Bill Gates"...
First Year , USD1B return
Second Year, USD2B return
Third YEar, USD4B return
Fourth Year, USD8B return
Fifth Year, USD16B return
Sixth Year, USD32B return .........................................KAKA
Monday, November 30, 2009
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (82,800 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (52,200 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (14,000 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (14,000 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (52,200 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (20,100 Shares Acquired)
6:53PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (82,800 Shares Acquired)
- Hmm...Aberdeen still buying POS Msia these few days... So Tricky!
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Eclectic Approach: Rating
Eclectric Approach : Rating
- Sell above RM3.00
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
6:46PM POS Credit Suisse Group AG (52,200 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (25,600 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (25,600 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (212,300 Shares Transacted)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management PLC and its subsidiaries (71,800 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (92,300 Shares Acquired)
6:46PM POS Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Limited (71,800 Shares Acquired)
Why Aberdeen Asset Management Asia & Credit Suisse as international fund manager pick POS Malaysia Berhad? POS is making losses since 2007. I think the management from POS Malaysia Berhad, don't know how to manage business, good business become bad business, losses. Don't you think their management very very lousy?
Please let's me know if you find some good answer why they buy POS. I check the valuation, not attractive at all for one business, with more than 3 years EPS negative. Sleeping Manager working inside, How to generate profit?
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
US: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was -1.08 in October, down slightly from -1.01 in September. A decline in the contribution of production and income indicators offset small improvements in the other three broad categories of indicators that make up the index.
EU: Europe’s services and manufacturing industries expanded at the fastest pace in two years.The composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries in the 16-nation euro area rose to 53.7 from 53 in October
7:35PM MAXIS Dato' Haji Badri Bin Haji Masri ("Dato' Badri") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:35PM MAXIS Excorp Holdings N.V. ("Excorp") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:35PM MAXIS STC Asia Telecom Holding Ltd ("STCAT") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:35PM MAXIS STC Malaysia Holding Ltd ("STCM") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS PanOcean Management Limited ("PanOcean") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Pacific States Investment Limited ("PSIL") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Mohamad Shahrin Bin Merican ("MSM") (2,250,011,000 Shares Transacted)
7:34PM MAXIS Usaha Tegas Sdn Bhd ("UTSB") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Usaha Tegas Equity Sdn Bhd ("UTE") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Binariang GSM Sdn Bhd ("BGSM") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Saudi Telecom Company ("STC") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Maxis Communications Berhad (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Tun Haji Mohammed Hanif Bin Omar ("THO") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
7:34PM MAXIS Harapan Nusantara Sdn Bhd ("HNSB") (2,250,000,000 Shares Disposed)
"Why all insiders keep selling the Maxis Stock? Are they trader?"
Monday, November 23, 2009
"Historically, the dollar usually doesn’t start rising on a sustained basis until 12 months after the Fed starts to lift rates."
Sunday, November 22, 2009
"US Economic growth in 2010 and 2011 would be unusually weak as it faces numerous powerful headwinds and weak consumer spending"
Special Situation Blog
"There're powerful tailwinds too" - Special Situation
1)Aggresive Monetary Policy
2)US Consumer Spending is a function of disposable income and not just asset price. Equity price have already surged, prolonged battering of house price has ended, Disposable income is expected to grow at a normal rate soon, as the aftershocks emanating from the Lehman Panic subside.
3)Benefiting from a recovery in all kinds of investment spending.
4)Rising Exports to a fast recovering global economy (Especially Australia, Asia) will be another boost to US economic growth in the medium term.
The NYSE continues to sustain its upbeat mood,even when the US economic data does not look reassuring.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
The company is cashed up and looking for new avenues of growth. Potash, used mainly in fertilizer to grow fruits, vegetables, soy and corn, offers just the right opportunity.
BHP Chief Executive Marius Kloppers is so excited about expanding into potash, he talks about it in the same breath as he talks about the company's most profitable business, iron ore.
His bullishness on potash has prompted takeover speculation in the sector, with investors betting BHP might bid for one of the two big North American producers, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT.TO) or Mosaic Co (MOS.N), in a drive for instant scale.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Maintain Buy on Dialog. Our target price of RM1.52 is based on a FY10 sum-of-parts valuation. Dialog is a steady defensive O&G stock that provides investors an attractive dividend yield of about 4%. It held net cash of RM143m as at 30 Sept, 2009.
Kinsteel’s 3Q09 results were below expectations, largely on the back of lowerthan- expected volume sales. Nevertheless, what is positive is that with higher steel prices and lower production cost, Perwaja (PERH MK, MYR1.36, Not Ranked) and the group as a whole, returned to the black after three consecutive quarters of losses.
Billet prices rose an average of 5%-8% QoQ in 3Q09. Nevertheless, group revenue declined 28% QoQ on the back of lower sales volume, likely due to the slow pickup in domestic infrastructure projects.
Operationally, however, the group turned around to profit on the back of lower production costs, with an increase in the utilization of cheaper DRI as opposed to scrap metal, as its primary raw material.
Perwaja reported a net profit of MYR13.1 mln in 3Q09 vs. a loss of MYR84.9 mln in 2Q09. Cumulatively, however, the group continues to be in the red, with a total loss of MYR128.3 mln for 9M09.
Taking into account a more moderate recovery in selling prices and sales, we reduce our 2009 net profit estimate to MYR10.3 mln (from MYR24.4 mln) and our 2010 net profit estimate to MYR112.3 mln (vs. MYR128 mln).
Recommendation & risk
We maintain our Buy recommendation on Kinsteel with an unchanged 12-month target price of MYR1.10.
We continue to utilize a blend of PER and P/B multiples to value Kinsteel. Our target multiples are unchanged at 11x PER and 1x P/B, but are rolled forward and applied to our estimated 2011 EPS (2010 previously).
Our calculations are fully diluted after taking into account Kinsteel’s outstanding warrants (exercise price at MYR0.20), which will expire on Nov. 11, 2011. The target PER and P/B multiples are benchmarked to peer and historical averages. We continue to expect a better outlook for the industry, as we believe support for higher demand and selling prices will come from more infrastructure projects being rolled out. We also expect Kinsteel’s 2010 earnings to get a lift from plans to modernize and expand its facilities by mid-2010.
Risks to our recommendation and target price include slower-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected raw material costs and volatility in international steel prices.
Modest 1Q Growth ---- Results tak cantik
We retain our 3-STARS (Hold) recommendation on Parkson Holdings (PHB) after minor adjustments to our earnings projections following the release of 1QFY10 (Jun) results. PHB is trading at a 33% discount to the market value of its stake in its main subsidiary, Parkson Retail Group (PRG) (03368, HKD13.36, Not Ranked), which is close to the historical average of 27%. We believe PHB will continue to trade at a discount to PRG, given PHB’s smaller market capitalization and lower share liquidity relative to PRG.
1QFY10 (Jun) results were at the lower end of our expectations due to marginally weaker-than-expected contribution from the China operation, which is held via 51.6%-owned PRG. PHB's 1QFY10 net profit rose 8% YoY on the back of revenue growth of 3%. We estimate that PRG accounted for about 80% of PHB’s earnings. The China, Malaysia and Vietnam operations saw same-store sales (SSS) growth of 7.5%, 4% and 22% respectively in 1QFY10. Malaysia’s 1QFY10 SSS growth is within the full-year target of 3%-4%, while Vietnam’s is above the full-year target of 15%-20%. Meanwhile, PRG’s SSS growth of 7.5% in 3Q09 and 7.1% in 9M09 are
at the lower end of its 2009 target of a "high single digit" growth. Nonetheless, we expect growth to gather pace next year, as consumer demand improves in line with stronger economic growth.
PHB’s concessionaire rate fell slightly to 20.8% in 1QFY10 from 21.1% in 1QFY09, while the China operation’s concessionaire rate (via PRG) fell to 19.8% from 20.3%, due to promotions to drive sales. We expect fewer promotional activities as consumer sentiment picks up.
We have fine-tuned our forecast for PRG, resulting in a 3%-4% cut in our net profit forecast for PHB. We project a 3-year recurring net profit CAGR of 23% driven by PRG, which is targeting a floor space increase of 15% p. a.
PHB offers exposure to retail markets in three countries, namely China, Vietnam and Malaysia. In our view, PHB is well-positioned to benefit from rising purchasing power in China and Vietnam over the longer term. Management has extensive experience in the retail business and PHB is an early entrant into the fast-growing retail markets in those countries. In China, its first-mover advantage has enabled it to build a strong brand name and a nationwide network.
Meanwhile, with concessionaire sales accounting for 86% of merchandise sales, inventory risk is minimized.
Our 12-month target price of MYR5.50 is unchanged. Our target price continues to be based on a 25% holding company discount to the sum-of-parts (SOP) value, plus projected net DPS.
The 25% discount that we apply to our SOP value is close to the historical 27% discount that PHB trades to PRG in terms of the market value of its stake in the latter. In our view, the market value discount reflects PHB’s smaller market capitalization and lower share liquidity relative to PRG.
Our valuation of PRG is based on a combination of discounted cash flow and relative valuation. PRG’s relative valuation is derived from a target 2010 PER of 24x (unchanged). Meanwhile, our valuation of the Malaysia and Vietnam operations is based on a target FY11 PER of 8x.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Many commentators are talking with doomsday language of an imminent Dollar plunge. While a further decline in the Dollar is certainly possible, a "plunge" doesn't seem in the cards. First, the
Inventories at US businesses fell in September to the lowest level in almost four years, signaling orders will rise in coming months as spending picks up. The 0.4% decrease in stockpiles was smaller than anticipated and brought the value of goods on hand down to USD1.3trn, the fewest since November 2005. Sales decreased 0.3%, reflecting a slump in demand for autos that was reversed last month. Companies depleted inventories at a record rate in the first half of the year, laying the groundwork for economic growth in the second half as consumers and businesses started spending again. Lean stockpiles at manufacturers such as carmakers and growing exports will spur a factory rebound that will propel the economic expansion into next year. (Bloomberg)
Monday, November 16, 2009
Friday, November 13, 2009
Contrarian Strategy :-
Overweight US financial sector, underweight Malaysia/HK financial sector. Add Holding in C to 15% of total porfolio. Top pick. "Remember, EPI centre is in US, not Msia/HK/Indonesia." I bet on CITI's brand name, attractive valuation and global economic recovery (China/Australia/Indonesia).
Expect Next Quarter, most companies will improve its business revenue.
Period : Long Term 5 years
Thursday, November 12, 2009
What’s he talking about? Today, we take a look and invest right alongside his idea. And it should start to pay off with the arrival of the first swallows of spring in 2010. It’s also timely now — in this weak-kneed economy — because it has traditionally held up well even in when the economy is on the ropes. Even the Great Depression couldn’t put this thing down.
Wilmar International, the world''s largest listed palm oil firm, reported a better-than-expected 35 percent rise in quarterly profit, helped by a one-timegain, and said it was otimistic about prospects for the rest of the year.
Risk : - Higher Expection on earning growth from Wilmar International in Singapore Stock Exchange. Too optismistic. Very risky now.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Is S$100 really a big amount for Singaporean?
- Everyday, a lot "customer"s are Q-ing outside Singapore Pools(www.singaporepools.com.sg) to buy TOTO/Lucky Draw/4D. Business is extremely good.
- If want to go to legal Casino, they have to travel to Malaysia KL Genting, it takes 4 hours journey. Bus ticket cost them S$70 (two-way). Taxi, Accommodation, Food, How much?
Let's make some calculation for 2-days in Msia-Genting :-
1) Food - S$20
2) Accomodation - S$40
3) Bus ticket (two way) - S$70.00
4) Total Travel Period - 8 hours - For gambler, 8 hours will allow them to play many rounds.
Total Expense - S$130.00
How about GENTING SENTOSA TRIP for Singaporean?
1) Entry fee - S$100.
2) SMRT-MRT- S$5
Total Expense - S$105.00
They can save up to S$25 and save travel times. Time is $$$ for Serious Gambler. They can earn back 105 within 1minute. :)
Another Points :-
I guess A lot of malaysians from Johor Bharu(Malaysia) will travel to visit GENTING SENTOSA and have some "BET". Why not spend long journey from JB -> KL -> GENTING HIGHLAND. Don't waste $$ & Time lar !!!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
- This Railway is used to distribute commodities in US.
- Emerging Countries like China, is hungry for Commodities.
- Hedge against High inflation.
Jim Roger - Strong recommendation on Commodities --------------->>> China's government link fund is shopping on commodties related company from 2008-2009.
What happen Later? Commodities Price UP SOON...
My Strategy : BULLISH ON COMMODITIES SECTOR NOW
Final Price RM4.75
Institutional Price RM5.00
According to media reports, Maxis has fixed the final retail price of its IPO at RM4.75, being the lower of the initial IPO price of RM5.20 and 95% of the institutional price of RM5.00, following the closing of the institutional offering yesterday.
At the lower end. The final price is at the low end of the indicative range of RM4.80-RM5.50 and a reflection of the valuation appetite among institutions for the stock. Based on the final price, Maxis’ go-to-the market equity valuation of RM35.6bn will price its shares at 14x-15x FY09/FY10 earnings and 9x CY10 EV/EBITDA. Our fair value on the stock ranges from RM5.30-RM5.80 which implies CY10 EPS of 14.8x-16.2x, within the PER range of regional cmparables and Digi’s 16.1x FY10 EPS. To be included as a component stock come 20 November. Maxis will be automatically included as a component of the KLCI with effect from 20 November. It would be the largest telco constituent (estimated weightage of 6.1% based on our calculation), raising the overall telecoms sector weightage on the index to 14.5% from 8.8% previously. Showing the numbers. Maxis would have to demonstrate its ability to
(i) maintain a generous dividend payout (subject to the minimum 75% payout guidance) and
(ii) supplanting the slowing growth in the domestic mobile market via stronger data revenues.
We had highlighted in our IPO note that Maxis should have no issue meeting its dividend obligations given the superior FCF yields projected of 8-10% for FY10-FY11, comfortably over and above the projected net dividend yields of 4.8-6.1% for FY10/11 based on management’s guidance. There is scope for management to return more cash on the back of proactive capital management, including the gearing up of its balance sheet (net gearing of 0.6x post listing).
Initiating coverage with a BUY. We are initiating coverage on Maxis with a BUY recommendation with a fair value of RM5.80 based on DCF (WACC: 9%, TG: 1.5%). Key share price re-rating catalysts are (i) the stronger than expected earnings going forward (ii) and (ii) higher than expected dividend payouts.
Monday, November 9, 2009
2) RWS can fully capture holiday-makers during next year’s Chinese New Year festivities. Also, RWS’s debut is very likely to be ahead of its rival’s, Marina Bay Sands (MBS). We continue to anticipate growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date. We retain our FY09-11 earnings estimates and end-CY10 sum-of-the-parts target price of S$1.27. Reiterate TRADING BUY with share-price catalysts likely to come from:
1) this concrete opening date;
2) more aggressive marketing efforts;
3) the award of its casino licence; and
4) a potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period if MBS opens later.
Positive development. The early Jan 2010 opening date is not entirely a surprise. GS has always guided for a RWS debut in 1Q2010. The timing excites us more as: 1) it falls within the earlier part of its 1Q2010 guidance; and 2) RWS would be able to capture the Chinese New Year crowd, as the Lunar New Year falls on 14 Feb next year. More importantly, an early Jan 2010 debut is very likely to be ahead of MBS’s expected Jan or Feb 2010 opening date. We note that RWS’s first event would be a ChildAid Concert, to take place on Dec 19-21 at its Festive Grand Theatre. Although RWS clarified earlier on that the theatre would be the only property accessible then, we do not discount the possibility of a soft opening of the resort to selected guests in conjunction with the concert.
Expecting more news flow. Besides this opening date, we expect RWS to step up its marketing efforts in the coming weeks as it seeks to build up excitement ahead of its opening. Another key event to watch for is the award of its casino licence, expected before year-end.
Still positive on RWS’s prospects. We remain optimistic on RWS’s prospects, especially with a more concrete opening date. Furthermore, RWS’s competitor appears still quite a distance form the finishing line. A potentially longer-than-expected monopoly period would be positive for RWS and could boost its numbers beyond our earlier estimates, especially with growing anticipation for the debut of Singapore’s two integrated resorts.
Valuation & Recommendation
Still a TRADING BUY. No change to our FY09-11 earnings estimates. Growing excitement over RWS as we approach its opening date and newsflow on RWS’s intensified marketing and rollout efforts, together with the award of a casino licence sometime in 4Q09 are expected to provide stock catalysts. GS remains a TRADING BUY.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
RNAV - 24x PE for its China operation, 12x PE for Malaysia operation and 10x PE for both Vietnam and excluded stores.
Why I Like Parkson?
1) Business Growth in China and Vietnam -> Next Asia Big Brother!
2) Strong Profit Margin.
3) Strong Net Earning - Currently, based on my financial statement analysis techique, strong net earning + low maintainance cost + low debt -> Super Profitable Business
4) EPS growing consistently.
5) Strengthening RMB against RM. -> RMB's actual rate is MYR/RMB=1. Please read more about The Ascent of Money about RMB. You will find the trick !
6) Currently, Parkson is very popular in China. According to some China Friends, "this is big retailing department store in every big city"
7) Cheng Family is big shareholder. Cheng will work very hard to make the business success. "Non-Family owned Business is not so good in Asia because CEO will not work hard if he just a High-Income Employee". High Flyer CEO can TALK COCK more than WORK.
Example :- A director with MBA (XXXX Company) - Learn How to Play tennis during office hours, Read Non-job related News, Send non-sense Email, Fuck Too Much Mid-nite then work @home.---->>>>>> WASTING SHAREHOLDER's MONEY!
Saturday, November 7, 2009
-Answer -> FIRE YOUR STUPID BOSS! Your total net worth is $7m after 20 years if you achieve 20% compound return every year! Job's increment is not enough for you to have $7,000,000 !!! Yahoo!Financial Freedom!
Try to be different from the perceived majority view. The current rally on the NYSE and elsewhere is one good example. So many were saying on March 2009 that the market and economic outlook is poor. By May, rally, driven only liquidity ( in fact, Dr Doom from NYU is still saying this). A few months later, they have cahnged their tune and are saying that the market rally is "too much, too soon, too fast." Yet, the rally is still intact. And now Warren Buffet is making his biggest bet by acquiring Burlington Northern.
"If you follow pretty girl's command, then you always make mistakes" - Stockaholic
Friday, November 6, 2009
Nonfarm payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 190,000 in October, bringing to total number of jobs lost in the recession to 7.3 million. It was the 22nd straight decline in payrolls. Large losses were seen in manufacturing, construction and retail. Health care and temporary-help agencies added jobs. Read the full government report.
The report was worse than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were forecasting a rise in the unemployment rate to 10%, with 150,000 lost payroll jobs. See Economic Calendar.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 10.2% was the highest since April 1983.
Unemployment rose by 558,000 to 15.7 million, the government said. Of those, 5.6 million had been out of work longer than six months, representing a record 35.6% of the unemployed.
The employment-population ratio fell to 58.5% from 58.8%. The employment-participation rate fell to 65.1% from 65.2%.
An alternative gauge of unemployment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time, rose to 17.5%, the highest on record dating to 1995.
Total hours worked in the economy fell 0.2%. The average workweek was steady at a record-low 33 hours. Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents or 0.3%, to $18.72. Average hourly earnings are up 2.4% in the past year.
In September, payrolls fell by a revised 219,000, compared with the previous estimate of a 263,000 loss. The unemployment rate was 9.8% in September.
Payrolls in August and September were revised higher by a total of 91,000.
In its survey of 400,000 business establishments, the government found that private-sector employment fell by 190,000 to 130.8 million in October. Government employment was unchanged.
Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 129,000, including 62,000 in construction and 61,000 in manufacturing. The average workweek in manufacturing rose to 40 hours from 39.9, the highest in 11 months.
Service-producing jobs fell by 61,000, including 40,000 in retail.
The only major sectors adding jobs were health care and education (up 45,000) and professional and business services (up 18,000). Temp-help agencies - a key leading indicator - added 34,000 jobs, the first significant increase since the recession began 22 months ago.
Of 271 industries, 33.8% were hiring in October, down from 37.5% in September.
In its survey of 60,000 households, the government found that employment fell by 589,000. The jobless rate for men rose to 10.7%, and it rose to 8.1% for adult women. The jobless rate for blacks rose to 15.7%, compared with 9.5% for whites and 13.1% for Hispanics.
The jobless rate for those with a college degree fell to 4.7% from 4.9%. For those without a high school diploma, the jobless rate rose to 15.5% from 15%. For those with a high school degree, but no college, the rate rose to 11.2%.
"This is another sign of full recovery will happen soon" - Tun Dr Ir. Sultan Lee
This is a very brief introduction to the very vast subject of fundamental analysis. To understand and make productive use of fundamental analysis, familiarity with accountancy and economics are essential. However, one need not be an accounting or economics expert for this purpose.
From a shorter - term perspective, one could argue that fundamental analysis does not apply to the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE)/Singapore Stock Exchange/Hong Kong Stock Exchange/Jakarta Stock Exchange/Thai Stock Exchange/Vietnam Stock Exchange. From a longer - term perspective, however, it is very difficult to invest successfully even on the KLSE/SGX/HKex without incorporating fundamental analysis into one's methodology. While the general perception is that the KLSE is still an inefficient market where rumours, tips, poor corporate governance, etc. rule, the smart investor would realize that applying sound fundamental analysis in such a stock market can be rewarding. But just like any other investment methods, fundamental analysis has its strength and weakness.
A. Earnings Per Share (EPS)
The Formula for calculating net EPS is:
Net Attributable Profit divided by Number of Shares Outstanding
EPS is generally used as an indicator of the performance of a company over a long period of time. For example, while a company's earnings may be rising over a period of time, its EPS may not be. There are various ways in calculating a company's EPS, depending on what the objective of the investor or analyst is. Most use net attributable earnings, that is, earnings after tax and minority interests.
EPS can also be based on historical or prospective earnings. Projected EPS is important because it can significantly influence the company's share price. A company's EPS can also be calculated on a diluted or non-diluted basis. Where a company has warrants outstanding, it is common practice to calculate the EPS assuming that all the warrants are exercised. The number of shares outstanding may also be affected by rights and bonus issues. In such cases, the number of shares outstanding could be an average figure.
Durable Competitive Business is able to grow 20-25% consistently over 10 years. But, high growth company doesn’t mean it is a good share to own. What if the growth stop and company has huge debt/long term debt?
Net interest income grew 3% from the previous quarter to a record SGD 1.14 billion. Interest margins were stable while loans rose slightly to SGD 128.3 billion due to housing loan growth. Deposits increased 1% to SGD 180.2 billion, with the mix shifting towards current and savings accounts.
· Overnight US data was upbeat, led by strong job data. Jobless claims dropped more than forecasted by 20k to 512k WOW adding to sign the job market is improving as the economy begins to gain pace. Further, worker productivity surged as labor costs fell and unemployment claims were lower, driving hopes that it will boost corporate profits.
· BOE and ECB continued to keep key rates at a record low on concerns that economies remain too fragile to remove stimulus measures. However, BOE raised asset purchases by GBP25b to GBP200b, GBP25b less than predicted, as the UK economy continued to contract through Oct, signaling recovery may be put on hold.
· Economic indicators showed that UK manufacturing output and IPI rebounded more than expected in Sep as rising confidence combined with sterling weakness appears to be supporting the recovery. However, European retail sales declined more than expected in Sep as consumers cut spending amid rising unemployment, suggesting the weak consumer sentiments are unlikely to head the recovery.
· Meanwhile, economic optimism in Australia were boosted by a statement by RBA saying that the economy will expand at more than three times the pace forecast in Aug, and signaled it will continue to lead the world in raising interest rates. Overnight data showed that building industry rose 0.1 pts to 50.9 in Oct, supporting views of strengthening economy.
(Source- Vitality N Katsenelson)
Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is a portfolio manager/director of research at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of "Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets" (Wiley 2007). For more information click here.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
D&O --> LIM THIAN SOO (80,000 Shares Acquired)
D&O --> LIM THIAN SOO (80,000 Shares Acquired)
D&O --> Lim Yam Poh (80,000 Shares Acquired)
D&O --> Lim Thiam Cheok (80,000 Shares Acquired)
ETITECH --> Lee Kah Kheng (2,550,000 Shares Disposed)
ETITECH --> Yeoh Li Hua (2,550,000 Shares Disposed)
ETITECH --> Dennis Chuah (10,090,600 Shares Transacted)
ETITECH --> Lee Kah Kheng (2,550,000 Shares Disposed)
ETITECH --> Dennis Chuah (10,090,600 Shares Transacted)
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Preferred Stock is Functions like debt in that dividends have to be paid out, but unlike the interest paid on debt,which is deductible from pretax income, the dividends paid on preferred stock are not deductible which tends to make issuing preferred share very expensive money.
Monday, November 2, 2009
For example if the settlement is RM 5.00, we will get back 20 sen.
The institutional money who have committed to purchase should drive the price higher in the short term. These Insiders will push the price higher in the short term so they can off load their purchases at a higher price. We can take advantage of this and sell with them locking in a 10 to 15 % gain.
If this scenario doesn't pan out, we cut our losses.
One fundamental I like is that there has been a lot of negative news by local analists on Maxis in the last week. Bad news is the friend of the buyer as Warren Buffet would say. If there was lots of good news I would be wary.
Trading buy: S$0.40-0.43
Target Price : S$0.50 (min)
Golden Agri is trading at forward PE of 14.5x and 13.0x, which is undemanding compared with its large cap Malaysian peers, which are trading at PEs in the high teens. There is a trading opportunity with Golden Agri given that it provides a better exposure than Malaysia-listed palm oil companies due to its cheaper valuation.
GO GO GO!!!
The problem with leverage is that it can make the company appear to have some kind of competitive advantage, when it in fact is just using large amounts of debt. Wall Street investment banks are notorious for the use of very large amounts of leverage to generate earnings. In their case, they borrow $100Billion at, let us say, 6%, and then loan it out for 7%,which means that they're earning 1% on the $100Billion,which equales to $1 billion. If that $1 billion shos up year after year, it create the apperance of some kind of durable competitve advantage,even if there isn't one.
The problem is that while it appears that the investment bank has consistency in its income stream, the actual source that is sending it the interest payments, may not able to maintain the payments. This happened in subprime lending crisis that cost the banks hundreds of billions of dollards. They borrowed bilions at, say , 6%, and loaned it out at 8%. to subprime home buyers, which made them a ton of money. But when the economy started to slip, the subprime homebuyers started to default on their mortgages, which meant they stopped making interest payments. These subprime borrowers did not have a durable source of income, which ultimately meant that the investment bank didn't either.
In short run, they appear to be the goost that lays the golden eggs, but at the end of the day, they're not.
Friday, October 30, 2009
• Rooms cost more than $170 on average during the quarter at the Venetian and Palazzo, though slightly more at the Palazzo. The rooms were just under 90 percent occupied for the quarte
• ... rates for leisure travel are also beginning to firm, particularly on the weekends. (obviously at some point supply finds demand - market discovery... hard to believe that still exists in America with what we see on a daily basis from our government and central bank)
• The company said it is continuing to cut costs but already has made 90 percent of the cuts it plans; in all, the cuts are to save the company $500 million per year.
And the elephant in the room...
• Sands also is working to lower its $11.76 billion in debt as of Sept. 30 by raising capital, selling noncore assets and cutting costs at its resorts.
But now it's a new day and almost every large corporation is deemed too big to fail. (Small business? No one cares about you) So we have to invest with the central planning commission government; amazingly banks who themselves were on the cliff of failing found it in their hearts to adjust loan terms to keep these big casinos alive. [Sep 3, 2009: Las Vegas Sands - Too Big to Fail?] At this point we only have about a 1% exposure in LVS since the day to day volatility is immense and the stock temporarily broke support. This is not really a name you can have very good risk controls over since the daily fluctuations will ruin almost any strategy. The chart is a bit misleading because after yesterday's 12% gains, the stock added quite a bit more in after hours once earnings came out mostly on the back of CEO Sheldon Adelson's comments about "bottoming" business activity. The fact that CEO phrases like this are still moving stocks 10% at a time is... well, says a lot about the market nowadays. The stock is in the mid $16s in the after hours session.
Effectively owning Las Vegas Sands is almost like a long dated call option; unlike MGM which is opening its huge project in America (City Center), LVS's future lies in Asia both with a Macau property and a new casino in Singapore. All things being equal (MGM actually has even more debt than LVS) I'd rather place my chips (pun intended) with the company whose future prospects lean to Asia. On that note we have word overnight that LVS has received approval to list its Macau unit in Hong Kong - should help them raise a ton of cash.
• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and China's Minsheng Banking Corp have won approval from the Hong Kong stock exchange for more than $6 billion in combined initial public offerings, sources said on Friday, as the companies try to cash in on an IPO window that may be slowly shutting.
• Las Vegas Sands plans to raise $2 to $3 billion by listing the gaming company's Macau unit on the Hong Kong exchange, sources said. Sands will kick off pre-marketing next week and start its marketing roadshow on Nov. 9, with a trading debut set for the end of November, according to sources with direct knowledge of the deal.
• The gaming and casino company run by Sheldon Adelson has struggled with a heavy debt load, and is looking to seize on an opportunity to have a publicly traded division in Hong Kong at a time when the IPO window is still open.
• Casino operator Las Vegas Sands Corp. on Thursday reported a larger third-quarter loss as gambling markets continued to struggle, taxes increased and the company pressed ahead on developing a resort in Singapore.
• The Las Vegas-based company led by billionaire Sheldon Adelson benefited from more gamblers visiting Macau, the Chinese gambling enclave, but was hurt in its home market of Las Vegaswhere bettors have stayed away from tables and rooms have been less profitable.
• Las Vegas Sands posted a loss of $123 million, or 19 cents per share, for the three months ended Sept. 30. It said those results were hurt by increased income tax expenses, which cost the company $73.7 million. The results compared with a loss of $32.2 million, or 9 cents per share, a year earlier.
But as our readers know, to make the stock market cheap, we have to ignore many "expenses" since apparently they are imaginary. So a 19 cent loss turns into a 3 cent gain, presto magic
• The company said its adjusted income -- which does not include many one-time items including the taxes, interest expenses or stock dividends -- totaled $20.1 million, a profit of 3 cents per share. That beat analyst expectations for losses of one penny per share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll.
• Its revenue rose 3 percent to $1.14 billion from $1.11 billion during the same quarter last year, but came in slightly shy of analysts' $1.17 billion estimate.
The Las Vegas exposure continues to suck wind...
• New casinos in Bethlehem, Pa., and Macau helped the company grow its overall gambling revenue more than $100 million to $908 million. But casino revenue at its Venetian and Palazzo resorts on the Las Vegas Strip fell to $99 million from $113.2 million a year earlier.
• Sands' revenue fell in food and beverage, hotel rooms and retail, while the company's overall expenses rose slightly.
• "It looks like they exceeded expectations in Macau, but they got destroyed in Las Vegas," said Susquehanna Financial analyst Robert LaFleur.
But never mind the numbers, the CEO provides happy talk and we can bid up the stock...
• Adelson told investors he was seeing strong signs that bad times might be turning around in Las Vegas because of a return of convention business and group bookings.
• "Just like night follows day and day follows night, there are peaks and valleys throughout the economic cycle and virtually everything in life," Adelson said. "There is no doubt whatsoever that the economy is returning and will return."
Who knew? Sheldon's a philosopher to boot....
Not as much "green shootery" coming from his peers...
• Several large Las Vegas-based casino companies have reported this week that they are struggling as consumers remain conservative in their spending, especially on leisure and gambling.
The company has been exploring a voluntary debt exchange and a prepackaged bankruptcy with bondholders. The voluntary debt exchange is unlikely to happen, leaving bankruptcy as the likely option.
This morning, CIT has reached an agreement to amend its $3 billion securities-based financing facility with Goldman Sachs International. Pursuant to the amendment, the commitment amount of the GSI Facility has been reduced to $2.125 billion, effectively eliminating the currently unused portion of the facility, and CFL has agreed to post additional collateral to secure amounts due to GSI under the GSI Facility
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Stocks fell last week and have continued to slide this week, prompting speculation that this may be the beginning of a correction. What does this mean for the overall markets going forward?
Adam Bold, founder and CEO of the Mutual Fund Store and Joe Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at Thinkorswim, shared their insights.
"This is really a healthy thing to have happen in the market," Bold told CNBC.
"It introduces some fear back into the markets, which is not a bad thing, and it gives people who have been waiting for an opportunity to get in that opportunity."
Bold said there's still US$4 trillion on the sidelines and there's still "a lot of opportunity" going forward.
We value Maxis, Malaysia’s largest mobile operator, at an equity value of RM39.8bn-RM43.5bn, implying a fair value of RM5.30-RM5.80/share. The valuation translates into 14.8x-16.2x CY10 EPS, and is supported by our DCF valuation of RM5.80 (WACC: 9%,TG: 1.5%). Investors are advised to subscribe to the offer in view of Maxis’ strong fundamental execution, superior EBITDA margin and robust prospective dividends going forward. Institutional investors would have strategic exposure to an index-linked heavyweight with a sound liquidity profile. While deprived of the longer term growth story with the overseas assets hived off, Maxis is a core holding for exposure to Malaysia’s mobile telecoms.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Key changes in our country quant model this month are:
Upgrading: Malaysia and Egypt from equal-weight to overweight;
Downgrading: Peru and Chile from equal-weight to underweight.
Overweight countries are: China, Brazil, Taiwan, India, Israel, Poland, Malaysia and Egypt;
Underweight countries are:
Strong points for Malaysia in our model include a #1 currency ranking and #4 business cycle ranking. Relative P/Book has fallen to 1.0x due to recent under performance. Malaysia also gains in our model ranking this month, moving from #8 to #6. Strong points for Malaysia in our model include a #1 currency ranking (a combination of fundamental upside and a stock market consisting mainly of domestic demand, Malaysia ringgit earning stocks).
Malaysia ringgit is making steady progress against the US dollar.We also rank Malaysia’s business cycle score in the top quartile of EM countries in the model. Exports seem set to
trend up strongly from here, and Malaysia is one of the EM countries most geared to a recovery in global trade and commodity prices.
Due to recent under performance, the P/BR relative of MSCI Malaysia to the EM benchmark (now 1.0x) has fallen significantly. Malaysia is one of the least technically overbought markets in the asset class, ranking #5 on this metric. Moreover, the median GEM fund is running a significant underweight of 132 bps versus the benchmark, substantially higher than the average for the last five years.
Thought of the Week
Next week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish a preliminary forecast of third-quarter U.S. GDP, which is estimated to show an encouraging bounceback of 3 - 4% growth. However, it's important to realize that we're not alone in the recovery. This week's chart shows that China (as well as the Asia region as a whole) has already experienced its bounceback in growth, which is now returning to more normal levels. While the global rebound will not be perfectly in sync, global growth as a whole seems to be finally picking up, which should prove to be both a boost for U.S. expansion via increased exports as well as a significant tailwind for international stocks in coming years.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Leveraging on its RM0.90 support line, a rebounced is seemingly brewing within Integrated Logistics. This can be reassured by its daily MACD that is already turning bullish. Furthermore, its RSI shows that the counter has decently cooled down and is riped for next wave of rally. With the economy on the mend, expects the logistic sector to pick up soon.
Target Price 1.20 with minor hiccups @RM1.17. Place relevant stop-loss.
• Driving the Nation towards a High-Income
• Ensuring Holistic and Sustainable
• Focusing on the Well Being of the Rakyat
Source: 2010 Budget Speech, UOB Kay Hian
Key Initiatives Since Najib Became PM
• Introducing the 1Malaysia Concept,
People First, Performance Now
• Liberalising 27 services sub-sector and the financial sector
• Abolishing the Foreign Investment
Committee guidelines and establishing Ekuiti Nasional Berhad
Source: 2010 Budget Speech
2010 Budget: Construction, Infrastructure RM9b allocation for infrastructure projects, including:
• RM4.7b for road and bridge projects
• RM2.6b for water and sewerage services
• RM899m for rail facilities
• RM820m for ports and sea services
• RM276m for airport project