Saturday, June 23, 2012

Jim Rogers: I’m Telling You, The Economy Is Going To Be Bad Next Year (GLD, SLV, TZA, FAZ, IAU)

Commodities investor extraordinaire Jim Rogers of Rogers Holdings strongly suggests battening down the hatches, because the global economy is headed for the rocks, taking stocks with it.  To protect wealth from a deepening of the mostly Western side of the global depression, the 69-year-old Rogers is long oil, gold and other tangibles to front-run the predictable response by central banks of further money printing.  He is short equities.
“If stocks collapsed around the world I would have to buy a lot more stocks,” he told CNBC, Wednesday.  “I would buy stocks again, but I don’t see that happening. I’m telling you, the economy is going to be bad next year. Why buy stocks in the face of something like that?”

Jim Rogers 23 June 2012

Jim Rogers : The US Dollar is not a Safe Heaven

Jim Rogers : "I hope the Euro survives, The world needs something to compete with the US Dollar , the only thing I see on paper at least is the Chinese currency it could some day but right now it is a blocked currency so it is an academic conversation , I certainly hope The euro survives because if it could survive in a stronger base ..., you know right now we all relying on the US Dollar and the US Dollar is a very flawed currency , we have the largest debtor nation in the history of the world backing the US Dollar , that's not a very sound currency " 

Jim Rogers : How to Trade Operation Twist 2

Jim Rogers : This (Operation Twist) is more bad news as far as I am concerned they will continue to print more money continue to spend other people 's money and we are going to run out of other people's money before long ...yes quantitative easing would have been worse but if you look at the balance sheet for FED it continues to rise they are doing a little bit more than what they just say they are doing , somebody is creating credit somewhere and the only person that can do that in the US legally is the federal reserve .... 

Jim Roger : The Germany Taxpayer has made a mistake

JIM Roger on June 2012 :
German tax payers have made a mistake. Why should they be bailing out banks, while Greece is sitting on the beach drinking wine? So, I would let them go bankrupt; it will cause pain but a lot of other European countries had horrible pains few years ago but now they are booming. You cannot deny reality. You should take the pain and get over with it. -in NDTV 

Jim Rogers is an author, financial commentator and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times and is a regular guest on Bloomberg and CNBC.

Marc Faber : Investors should Diversify not just Hold Gold

Marc Faber :
 I do not think it is necessarily the best asset. What I am suggesting is that people should diversify their assets and should own some gold compared to paper money. Over time central banks will continue to print money everywhere in the world. Therefore, the purchasing power of paper money will decline. So I would own some gold. We are in a correction period and we may still go lower. But on this weakness I would continue to accumulate gold. - in ET Now

Malaysia Special Situation Portfolio 2012 : Top Pick is Boustead Holdings Berhad

Year : 2012
Top Pick : Boustead Holdings Berhad
Reason : 
1) Very Low Price/Earnings Ratio with high dividend yield (6-8%).
2) Can Hold for long term (5-10 years) with potential high growth in earnings.

Marc Faber : Outlook for the US Dollar in 2012

Marc Faber : I think it is very difficult to be bullish about the US dollar or anything in the US economy. But, compared to other currencies, the dollar is now a relatively safe currency. Global liquidity is tightening and so the dollar probably will continue to appreciate, most likely also against Euro. But it is not that the US dollar is particularly good. It is just less bad for the time being. I have to specify for the time being compared to other currencies. 
-in ET Now

"Stock How to Buy"

How to buy stock?

What's a good answer to beginner?

Three things you need to know on how to buy stock
1) Fundamental Analysis
2) Technical Analysis
3) Macrotrend Analysis

This helps you be next "Warren Buffet" in your country.

Friday, June 22, 2012

Marc Faber : Recommends Stocks...

Question : So you're recommending equities, despite the poor backdrop? 
Marc Faber : I still like my January investment picks. As a group, Singapore REITS look OK. Among them I like Mapletree Commercial Trust [MCT.Singapore], Frasers Centrepoint Trust [FCT.Singapore], K-REIT Asia [KREIT.Singapore], Mapletree Logistics Trust [MLT.Singapore], Ascott Residence Trust [ART.Singapore], Cache Logistics Trust [CACHE.Singapore] and Parkway Life [PREIT.Singapore]. 
I am also warming to gold shares. Gold corrected to $1,522 last December from $1,921 in September. It rebounded to $1,795 in February and is back down around $1,600. The correction could last longer, but given that governments will print more money, gold is relatively effective as a currency. My preference is physical gold, but I would also own some gold shares, which have been decimated. Goldcorp [GG] is attractive because most of its properties are in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The company isn't exposed to regimes that are talking about nationalizing resources. In general, stock markets are oversold. The U.S. government-bond market is overbought. The U.S. dollar is overbought, and gold is oversold near term. 
in Barron's Roundtable - June 2012

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Marc Faber : The Germans could lose patience and decide to exit the Eurozone

Marc Faber : " I think the dollar had a very strong rally and the euro became very oversold , I think the Greek election will be favorable in other words the Greeks will decide not to leave the Eurozone and the problems will be postponed because they will not implement the austerity that is demanded by them , and I do not know what the actual outcome will be but I think it is quite possible that at some stage the Germans will lose patience and that They will exit the Eurozone " - in CNBC Interview 

21 June 2012 - CNBC 

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Stock Pick Tips : Parkson Berhad - A value stock?

Parkson Holdings is principally involved in operating department stores in Malaysia, China and Vietnam. It holds a 51.6% stake in Hong Kong-listed Parkson Retail Group.

Expansion Plan 
Expansion plan. By FY13, the group plans to increase the gross floor area (GFA) in China by 279k sq ft. There will be 1 new store in Malaysia, 2 in Vietnam, 2 in Indonesia and 1 in Cambodia in FY13, which will add a total of 89k sq ft of GFA in Southeast Asia.

Current P/E : 7.1
Dividend Yield : 4.56%
ROE : 15.58%

The current P/E ratio is something very interesting for us to take a look in this share. With a solid expansion plan, we expect a good dividend yield in coming years if they manage to deliver a successful business expansion.

Rate: Buy Below RM4.70
(Disclosure : Author has no position in Parkson Berhad)

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Where Jim Rogers is putting his Money ? - CNN Money 18 June 2012

If you think 2012 is scary, listen to what Jim Rogers has to say about next year, gold and China " You should be very worried about 2013 , 2014 you should be very very worried ""we had a lost decade in America we are going to have another lost decade , next year it is going to be bad for the American economy be very careful " says Jim Rogers "my Money is : I am short stocks shorting is when you think something is going to go down , I own currencies and I own commodities " 

I have more worries on Jim Roger's Money at this moment if he's shorting share in US/China/Asia. Special Situations's blog continue stay bearish for next few months but we will see a strong market rebounce at the end of this year (2012). Time will tell us everything! Anyways, to Jim Roger, he always a winner in commodities hedging because human population is increasing but we have limited natural resources on earth. This is mega-trend on coming years ...No doubt, he will not lose heavily if he failed in stock shorting if he's doing hedging on commodities.

Marc Faber likes the Singapore Dollar The Thai Baht The Malaysian Ringgit and the US Dollar only in the Short Term

I think the Singapore Dollar is a relatively stable currency , I believe that the Thai Baht The Malaysian Ringgit are relatively solid currencies " 
" I kind of like the US Dollar , we had a big move in the US Dollar I think it's correcting now I think the further move will come because as global liquidity tightens it's US Dollar friendly but longer term you cannot be very optimistic about the US Dollar " 

Monday, June 18, 2012

Old Town Berhad : Potential High Growth In China Market

China FMCG business taking root. 

We understand that the construction of Oldtown’s  new factory in Ipoh is on track and is expected to be completed by 3Q12. 

Given the good response to its coffee products in China so far, we think that there is upside to our FY13 forecast for the company’s fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) business. This will be driven by that country’s fast-growing middle income population, with which coffee-drinking is increasingly becoming popular. We maintain our view that revenue from the FMCG business will outpace that from its food and beverage (F&B) business as the extra capacity from the new factory will lead to a sharp spike in FY13 earnings. 

The company has appointed 3 distributors in China which are distributing its products in
tier 1 cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangdong.

Quarterly Earning Results

We are taking a closer look at Oldtown’s growth outlook following updates from
its management during yesterday’s analyst briefing. All in all, we continue to like
Oldtown’s bright prospects, underpinned by major developments that may
potentially unfold early next year. The stock’s rerating catalysts are:
 i) obtaining Jakim’s  “halal‟ certification to penetrate the Muslim market, 
ii)  a stronger-thanexpected rollout of outlets, and
iii)  better-than-expected contributions from its
regional business.
Maintain BUY, with an unchanged fair value (FV) of RM1.66, based on its 12-month forward PER of 13x.

Land-banking firm Walton says it's not like scam-tainted firms

Land-banking firm Walton says it's not like scam-tainted firms and has never lost clients' money. By Felda Chay

IT'S been a year since landbanking firms in Singapore were brought to their knees following a widely publicised scandal where one company lost its clients' money, and land investment firm Walton International Group Inc was no exception. The company, which received a flurry of calls from worried investors seeking reassurance in the immediate aftermath of the industry fiasco, has had to deal with the suspicion shrouding investments in raw land since. Type 'Walton International' into the Google search engine, for instance, and phrases such as 'Walton International scam' and 'Walton International complaints' appear.

But Walton is not like them, said the group's chief executive Bill Doherty to Singapore media, in reference to the company that had gone under with its investors' money. 'We have never lost our clients' money.' This is a point that he, and Walton's top management, reiterated numerous times during a three-day visit made in early September to the company's headquarters in Calgary, Canada, which was paid for by the company.

Lands that Walton has bought with its investors, for instance, have been sold to developers who see potential in the plots. Its investors have also been duly rewarded with returns on their investments.

According to Walton, the annualised total return for projects it exited from late 1998 to end 2010 amounted to between 5.2 per cent and as high as over 50 per cent. These numbers were audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers according to generally accepted standards in Canada.

Walton markets land in Canada and the United States, and has been in Singapore since 1996. Some 18,000 of its 74,000 investors are located here. The group is owned by Mr Doherty's family, and was established under the Walton name in 1986.

Mr Doherty said that scandals involving raw land investment firms have popped up not just in Singapore, but also in Canada. The company now has to grapple with the belief that anything which sounds too good to be true, is too good to be true; if such investments were so lucrative, companies would be better served by keeping these deals to themselves.

Not true, said Mr Doherty. Land investment firms partner investors to buy land because it allows them to free up capital and purchase more and bigger plots, widening their reach. So it makes sense to bring in investors who are willing to plough their money into land.

'We have a strong cash position,' said Mr Doherty. Walton said that it has seen a 196 per cent jump in the amount of cash held in 2010 from 2008, though it did not give figures on the actual amount of cash it is sitting on.

Unlike some of its now-defunct peers, Walton does not promise investors a handsome yearly dividend on their land investments. Instead, returns are paid out when its investors exit a project. 'The system of paying a yearly dividend doesn't make sense because holding land doesn't pay you an income. It doesn't,' said Mr Doherty. 'It is not a cash-flowing, income-producing asset, so it makes no sense.'

Scandals aside, critics of raw land investment have pointed out that it is an unlicensed product in Singapore and therefore does not fall under the purview of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). This means that investors may have few avenues through which to seek recourse, raising the risk factor of raw land investment.

Raw land investment is also an illiquid venture. Walton's investors have had to sit on their investments for as long as 19 years - the longest they had to wait to see returns from the pre-development projects they put money in. Even the shortest wait took about two years. On average, Walton's investors have had to wait about seven years before their investments bore fruit. There is also the worry that key assumptions of the land investment firm do not hold: In other words, the purchased land may never undergo development.

Mr Doherty acknowledged that the investment is illiquid, but believes that the firm's value proposition is its track record in delivering returns. 'Our track record is this: No one has ever lost money when investing with Walton if they had stuck with our programme. Our returns, on average, are 15 per cent compound after fees,' said Mr Doherty.

On raw land investment being an unlicensed product, Leslie Fryers, Walton's executive vice-president of law, said: 'There is no legal requirement for us to be licensed in Singapore.'

Also, investing in land 'is like buying a house, a piece of property', she said.

'We've certainly had legal opinions delivered to us that there is no requirement from MAS for a regulation on our product.

'It's our land that we are selling and we control it and we have very, very disciplined, very focused procedures to ensure that the purchase and sale agreements are properly registered and titled back to investors.' She added that the group gives client regular updates on their investments. Still, Walton would consider licensing its product 'if that is the way Singapore would like the product to be sold', said Ms Fryers. 'We already have the necessary processes in place both in Canada and the United States. It wouldn't worry us but from our perspective, it is certainly cleaner for the purchaser to have a direct ownership of the land as opposed to having an interest in an entity which has registration ownership of the land'.

The group also tries to minimise the risk of its land investments never undergoing development. Key to its investment strategy is strong research into the development potential of the ground it is eyeing, which takes years to complete. This involves looking into 'anything related to urbanisation', said Walton's executive vice-president of land research and acquisitions, Sean Cooney.

'Market statistics, political analysis, environment analysis, financial analysis. You name it, we are researching it. It is a very comprehensive view. The job is done on the ground in the truck. You can read any spreadsheet, you can read any headline, but if you're not in your truck looking at how the market is growing on a day-to-day measurement, you are completely oblivious to that market,' said Mr Cooney.

Thorough research

People and groups that Walton talks to as part of its research include landowners, bankers, real estate brokers, engineering companies and law firms, basically 'any group that is an active participant in development', said Mr Cooney. 'If you talk to enough people over a period of time, usually two years, you then get a sense of the long-term vision of growth in that area'.

Walton has spent between two-four years researching each piece of land it purchased, a process that has cost the company up to US$2 million annually, said Mr Cooney. It is such a lengthy process because the firm tries to talk to every single individual living around the area it is keen to own, to ensure that everyone's plans are in sync. 'If you buy one piece of dirt you need to understand what all the neighbours want to do over the long term with their lands,' said Mr Cooney. 'You buy land in a community context you need to understand everyone in the community.'

Once the research team gives its nod of approval, the decision on whether to plough money into a plot falls on the shoulders of Walton's executive buying committee, which has the final say on a purchase. The additional check and balance is meant to ensure that the land can be planned and will be developed eventually.

There were times - and more often than Mr Cooney likes - when the committee decides not to go ahead with a purchase despite the research team's endorsement. According to him, 20 per cent of the pieces of land brought to the buying committee do not get the green light for purchase. He believes that these land parcels ultimately failed to gain approval because of Walton's very stringent standards.

'And that in itself reduces the risk of our investment,' said Mr Cooney. 'It protects Walton, it protects the investors, it protects the various entitles through which we hold these investments under.'

Walton International Land Banking SCAM?

Walton International Group clarifies Bank Negara probe
Monday, 09 March 2009 19:53
KUALA LUMPUR: Walton International Property Group (M) Sdn Bhd said on March 9 that it does not distribute real estate investment trusts (REITS), nor does it offer deposit-taking or interest schemes.
It said that it offered clients the opportunity to purchase ownership of high-quality land in highly-researched and carefully-selected growth areas within Canada and the US.
“Walton’s Malaysian clients hold legal title to the North American lands that they own, safely and securely registered in the respective jurisdictions. Over Walton’s 30-year history, almost 50,000 clients worldwide have purchased more than 49,000 acres of land, a total of nearly RM 6 billion worth of land,” it said.
The statement was issued after Bank Negara raided the group’s offices in Kuala Lumpur, Kota Kinabalu and Kuching on March 5 under the Exchange Control Act (ECA) 1953.
The central bank had stated the raids were carried out simultaneously following complaints received from members of the public.
Bank Negara had also seized relevant documents from the company for investigation. The central bank had on March 6 also advised the public to be cautious of this type of land banking schemes promoted by the company.
“Any elements of deposit-taking activities and public offerings such as ‘interest schemes’ or investment in real estates schemes (REITs) should be referred to the appropriate authorities such as Bank Negara Malaysia, Suruhanjaya Syarikat Malaysia and Suruhanjaya Sekuriti,” it added.
Walton said it did not consciously or deliberately contravened any laws in the countries in which it operateds. It also assured its clients, employees, partners and the Malaysian public that it was cooperating fully with Bank Negara to resolve this matter as quickly as possible.
“Walton operates to the highest ethical and business standards, here in Malaysia and around the world,” said Walton Asia chief operating officer Kent Britton.
“In Malaysia, as elsewhere, we are committed to positive relationships with our valued clients and with the citizens and governments of the countries in which we do business.”
He said Walton was fully open and transparent in its professional relationships with regulatory authorities, and responsive to requests for information and cooperation.

Marc Faber Call on Euro on June 2012

The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report author and publisher , Marc Faber thinks the final outcome of the Greek elections will be that the Greeks will decide not to leave the Eurozone, and the problems will just be postponed because they won't implement the austerity measures expected of them. " I think the dollar had a very strong rally and the euro became very oversold , I think the Greek election will be favorable in other words the Greeks will decide not to leave the Eurozone and the problems will be postponed because they will not implement the austerity that is demanded by them , and I do not know what the actual outcome will be but I think it is quite possible that at some stage the Germans will lose patience and that They will exit the Eurozone " says Marc Faber