According to its parent's 3Q results, Marina Bay Sands (MBS) Singapore saw aggressive operations ramp, with gross gaming revenue rose 58% QoQ to S$7.8m. We estimate that Singapore gaming market may have grown 11-12% QoQ to S$17.5m a day based on our S$9.7m/day est at Resorts World Sentosa (RWS). Annualised, this suggests Singapore gaming market size of S$6.4bn. In terms of market share, we believe MBS has gained share to roughly 45% vs 31% in 2Q. More importantly, management indicated strong gaming revenue growth in October to S$10.9m/day (up 40% from 3Q) partly due to Golden Week holiday and heavy VIP hold. We maintain our view that Singapore could end the year at S$7.0bn annualized, with upside risk. Genting Singapore will report on 11 November. For 3Q, we expect RWS to report EBITDA of S$380m vs S$503m in 2Q due largely to low VIP hold. DB forecasts 3Q RWS EBITDA of 50.8%. Beyond the weak 3Q, we remain positive on the longer term outlook of Singapore market and maintain our forecasts of US$6.0n market in 2011. Our TP of S$2.60 TP values Singapore gaming at 14x 2011 EV/EBITDA. Key risks: prolong delays in junket licensing, regulatory changes and lower-than-expected market share.
Key statistics at MBS. MBS reported US$414.5m of net casino revenue or c. US$549m of gross gaming revenue in 3Q. This implies gross daily gaming revenue of US$6.0m or S$7.8m, up 58% QoQ (or S$8.0m on normalized hold of 2.85%, up 45% QoQ). Gross gaming revenue breakdown - 50% VIP; 36% mass and 14% slots. Growth were underpinned primarily by higher VIP rolling which rose 89% QoQ, averaging at US$113m a day vs US$60m in 2Q. VIP rolling grew further to US$168.3m in October (+50% vs 3Q). Property EBITDA margin stood at 49.7% in 3Q (or 51% on normalized hold).
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